Messages
Trading levels 22nd / 26th October 2012
Last week --- the whole week was spent in a very tight rang …. From 5633 / 5725 … just about 90 points. THIS IS UNUSUAL.
NORMALLY, RESOLUTION OF THESE TIGHT RANGES HAPPEN WITH ABOUT DOUBLE SIZE BREAK-OUT MOVE IN FOLLOWING FEW DAYS.
Monday could be the day when the range will be broken. On Friday, we have seen a major reversal in US markets and chances are big that our market will replicate same on Monday. If we do not get out of this tight range on Monday, that will be a big show of strength by our market. Then there is every chance we will move up substantially when US market improves.
Result season so far is just about OK except ITC. ITC declared stellar set of numbers and justified the confidence reposed in it by global / domestic investors. Now the stock has onerous task to keep performing at this elevated level quarter after quarter lest the stock will take a bad tumble.
I wish to reiterate that I will be extremely wary of taking further long positions till we have a clear break-out again beyond the recent high of 5800+.
I maintain that distribution ( which many bulls are calling as consolidation ) is clearly evident thru large intraday volatility of 60 / 70 points with-in a tight range of 90 points.
Trading levels 22nd / 26th October 2012
Last week --- the whole week was spent in a very tight rang …. From 5633 / 5725 … just about 90 points. THIS IS UNUSUAL.
NORMALLY, RESOLUTION OF THESE TIGHT RANGES HAPPEN WITH ABOUT DOUBLE SIZE BREAK-OUT MOVE IN FOLLOWING FEW DAYS.
Monday could be the day when the range will be broken. On Friday, we have seen a major reversal in US markets and chances are big that our market will replicate same on Monday. If we do not get out of this tight range on Monday, that will be a big show of strength by our market. Then there is every chance we will move up substantially when US market improves.
Result season so far is just about OK except ITC. ITC declared stellar set of numbers and justified the confidence reposed in it by global / domestic investors. Now the stock has onerous task to keep performing at this elevated level quarter after quarter lest the stock will take a bad tumble.
I wish to reiterate that I will be extremely wary of taking further long positions till we have a clear break-out again beyond the recent high of 5800+.
I maintain that distribution ( which many bulls are calling as consolidation ) is clearly evident thru large intraday volatility of 60 / 70 points with-in a tight range of 90 points.
test
test
Trading levels 15th / 19th October 2012
Last week was a sort of anti-climax to the previous week. SUPER THURSDAY effect kind of waned off. As expected and predicted by me over last weekend, global markets have started slipping. We had a very shallow ripple effect in our market resulting into closing below 5,700 level on nifty after scaling 5,800 the previous week.
Our market is still in a strong bull grip. FIIs are pumping tens of millions of dollars and FM is not leaving any stone unturned. Latest, is allowing LIC up to 20 % investment in any stock. This is effectively setting a floor for FMCG leaders like HUL and ITC. No wonder these stocks moved up further and supported the index.
What is pertinent is that in spite of that, NIFTY lost 70 odd points over the weak. I smell distribution at higher levels and a PUSH may be coming under some pretext in the coming two weeks, which will fill the gap - 5447 / 5535 - left on 14th September.
Both BSP and SP are now going to toy with UPA making some announcement or the other every few days. That was to be expected. All this effectively means that NO FURTHER PROGRESS WILL HAPPEN ON RECENT ANNOUNCEMENTS DURING WINTER SESSION OF THE PARLIAMENT.
It seems Romney has taken a lead over Obama in pre-poll surveys. What does that mean for our market …. Please read below ……
Jim Bianco says “ if Romney becomes President, the US Fed Chairman Mr Bernanke would be thrown out. And chances are that he would be replaced by monetary economist John Taylor.
It is worth noting that this gentleman has been a strong opponent of quantitative easing (QE). So now, what could happen if the US Fed is chaired by a hawkish monetary economist? He would quite likely bring an end to the money printing spree and low interest rates. “
If this really happens, we can have 500 point nifty fall in 2 weeks time.
WE MUST BE AWARE AND TAKE COGNIZANCE OF THIS EVENTUALITY AS THE EVENT IS JUST 3 WEEKS AWAY.