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jan 2013 .... monthly levels ......stocks / commodities / world indices ....

My Weekly Take .....

Trading levels  31st    December / 4th January   2012

I had expected that last week will be a down week but market showed tremendous resilience in the face of weakness in US markets due to anxiety over FISCAL CLIFF issue.  This was possible as FIIs are just pumping money day after day … week after week.

We closed November at nifty level of 5879 and yesterday we closed at 5908 …. JUST 20 POINTS GAIN …. In spite of inflow of over 3 billion dollars from FIIs.

What does it mean ? ? ?

It means that undertone is WEAK but that is camouflaged  by incessant FII inflows. If we have a small amount of risk aversion developing in US / developed markets, the picture can change dramatically.  And that may be a great entry point. So keep booking profit at regular intervals and build a war chest which can be deployed in case of a sharp down trend.

I still maintain that 5838 / 5840 seems to be a fairly strong support failing which we may have another 100 point slide on the NIFTY.

IT IS ALWAYS PRUDENT TO MAKE AN ENTRY ON A CONFIRMED BREAK-OUT. RISK REWARD IS MUCH FAVOURABLE THAT WAY.

FISCAL CLIFF issue in US is a major trigger and we should wait patiently for the outcome before placing major bets on the market.

My monthly trading levels will be out on Tuesday morning and it may be prudent to wait for those levels.

Trading levels 

24th / 28th   December  2012

Last Fridays flourish in the end provided enough momentum for the bulls to try to push the NIFTY further up for first 3 days. But when they failed to clear the previous weeks high, the bears took charge and pushed index diwn very hard in last two days.

We have closed very close to previous weeks low and there is 90 % chance that the previous weeks low of 5841 will be broken on Monday itself which wl open possibility of further downside.

We have F&O expiry on Thursday and that will make this week volatile with sharp moves on both sides.

Banking bill  was cleared by Loksabha and all banking and NBFC stocks rejoiced mid-week – many  hitting  52 week highs.

The FII flows have been phenomenally strong and that is the reason why the market has not lost significant ground.

I maintain that 5838 / 5840 seems to be a fairly strong support failing which we may have another 100 point slide on the NIFTY.

Some of the daredevil traders who follow me, have taken preemptive short positions on Friday when NIFTY refused  to show any inclination to move up. They will be rewarded on Monday but I will not recommend such foolhardy approach. IT IS ALWAYS PRUDENT TO MAKE AN ENTRY ON A CONFIRMED BREAK-OUT. RISK REWARD IS MUCH FAVOURABLE THAT WAY.

Market is not looking strong on monthly charts anymore and short entries on weekly short triggers could give substantial returns.

Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.

I am available on yahoo messenger on most of the trading days and you can add me on your yahoo messenger.

WATCH OPTO CIRCUITS .... LOOKS LOKE DECLINE IS OVER AND STOCK CAN MOVE TO ABOUT 125 IN NEXT 6.8 WEEKS .....

Trading levels 17th / 21st December 2012



Last whole week, we have been consolidating and grinding down but for Friday when we had a bump-up in the end.

NIB – National Investment Board turned out to be a damp squib. Instead CCI was announced - which is nothing but one more cabinet coordinating committee - without any real teeth.

Banking bill is not getting thru without dropping the controversial ‘commodity trading’ clause. THAT MEANS HARDLY ANY HEADWAY WAS MADE ON REFORMS FRONT IN THE PAST WEEK AND PROBABLY SAME MAY CONTINUE IN THE NEXT WEEK ALSO.

The FII flows have been phenomenally strong and that is the reason why the market has not lost significant ground.

5838 / 5840 seems to be a fairly strong support failing which we may have another 100 point slide on the NIFTY.

I said last week that some caution is called for and longs need to be protected with tight stop-losses. I hope you have successfully bailed out of all your longs keeping most of the profits intact. Below 5838 / 5840 zone, you will have opportunity to go short in some weak stocks.

Market is looking strong on monthly charts but there could be weakness emerging on weekly charts. In that situation, it is prudent to wait on sidelines as going short or long may not give a significant gain while a sudden turn around may catch you on the wrong foot.

Trading levels 10th / 14th December 2012



I was away for one week in Muscat. On 27th November we had a huge up-move which was followed up by two more big up-days. We crossed the previous high of 5815 with utmost ease. As I had said earlier, that was a signal to open fresh longs on NIFTY constituents as well as high beta counters. Last week we have consolidated a bit more but the long counters have given anywhere between 5 to 10 % returns in those 5 days.

NOW THE TIME HAS COME AGAIN TO TURN CAUTIOUS as all the immediate triggers have played out and we will be again moving in tandem with world markets.

So protect your longs with close stop-losses and let them run if they continue to move upwards.

Market is looking strong on monthly charts but there could be weakness emerging on weekly charts. In that situation, it is prudent to wait on sidelines as going short or long may not give a significant gain while a sudden turn around may catch you on the wrong foot.