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point to ponder ......
apple computers .... which had topped at 705 dollars ... just 4 months ago .... god decimated over last 3 months and closed at dismal 450 diollrs yesterday .....
this was despite topping nalyst estimates ..... but just because NO IMPRESSIVE FUTURE PROJECTIONS .....
the stock trades at just 10 P/E ......
there is a lesson to be learnt ..... the space at the top is very small and air is very thin ..... THERE IS NO MARGIN FOR ERROR ....
we hv seen that happening to HUL and tata motors in last one week ....
MARK MY WORDS .... ITC wl be next in line ..... followed by HDFC bank ......
ITC could be because of some budget provisions .... last budget was good for ITC .... this time i dont think it wl be like that .........
HDFC BANK ..... may hv a negative surprise next time ... chinks could be seen in this result ......
My Weekly Take .....
Trading levels --- 21st / 25th January 2012
After INFY, Reliance has given another positive surprise. The stock has already run-up much so we may not have blinding fireworks on Monday but we will still have 3 to 4 % up-move pulling the NIFTY up by about 30 odd points.
NIFTY is pushing 6050 but 6100 may be a bigger obstacle since most major results which had potential to surprise have been out – except SBI. But any further up-move largely hinges on what RBI does on 29th January.
Market is pinning hopes on 50 basis points rate cut but in my opinion that is unlikely in view of recent diesel price hike for bulk consumers. Please keep in mind that this will get passed on to general public in due course which will stoke inflation.
Sector rotation is on in full swing and last weeks flavour was OIL and GAS. FMCG / METALS continued correction and Banking / IT did not really participate in the up-move.
We will soon start getting feelers from FM about possible provisions in the budget and may start affecting sentiment.
Monday’s session is crucial and I will not be happy if NIFTY is not able to cross 6100 hump decisively.
ALL THIS IS PREDICATED ON STRONG FII FLOWS FOR NEXT TWO WEEKS ATLEAST.
My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.
INFY price ...2800+ ..... is it justified ......
wipro's results hv highlighted possible fallibility of other bellweather IT stocks results .... wipro has taken cognizance of debt ceiling issue ... which our armchair analysts seem to hv ignored and made some straight line projections which is the reason for ramping of INFY to 2800+ levels ....
at this juncture ... 2550 ... give or take 50 rupees seems to be PAR price .... and i am convinced that the share wl come there in due course of time ....
if any body is holding INFY .... PL BOOK OUT ... u wl get the share about 250 rupees cheaper ....... in the coming days ......
My Weekly take .....
Trading levels --- 14th / 18th January 2012
Last week I had written that in spite of popular expectation, the possibility of further up-move is muted. That turned out to be absolutely prophetic. Infosys hugely cheered the markets today – 17 % up-move - but the markets ended lower for the day as well as the week.
I talked of sector rotation also. This week it has been It and energy and FMCG and Metals have crumbled.
Does this indicate distribution ? I think it does and we must be cautious and protect our gains whichever way possible.
It will be interesting to see Fridays FII figures when Infosys had a big cheer and old favorites ITC and HUL had a big down day. If FII inflows start turning negative, we will be pushed to 5800 levels in double quick time – next week – not withstanding bullish outlook of CNX IT index.
Monday’s session is crucial and if we close below 5936, then 5891 / 5838 become visible.
After 20th January, we may have shadows of BUDGET on the market as some tits-bits of information will start flowing from Finance department.
ALL THIS IS PREDICATED ON STRONG FII FLOWS FOR NEXT TWO WEEKS ATLEAST.
My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.
My Weekly Take ..... Trading levels --- 7th / 11th January 2012
Proverbial Fiscal Cliff was averted at the 11th hour on 31st December and that sparked a global rally in equities as well as commodities. Indian market had premted the rally on the earlier day hence our response was not so euphoric.
But that brings us to next point of conflict between President Obama and the Republicans – DEBT CEILING. It seems that this time the negotiations will be even tougher and the atmosphere will get murkier. But that is still 2 months away – End February.
That means global markets may continue to cheer for few more weeks and correspondingly we may not give up any recent gains in a hurry although possibility of further up-move is muted.
There will be vicious sector rotation and the midcaps and the smallcaps will have field day in coming two - three weeks. Keeping that in mind take moderate positions in these stocks but be quick to exit at first possible opportunity as you will never know when the tide will turn for any particular stock.
After 20th January, we may have shadows of BUDGET on the market as some tits-bits of information will start flowing from Finance department.
ALL THIS IS PREDICATED ON STRONG FII FLOWS FOR NEXT TWO WEEKS ATLEAST.
My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.