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buy feb 5800 put and 5900 call ..... cost around 70 rupees ..... on budget day market wl make about 100 points move .... so we wl make 30/40 rupees minimum .....

cheerssssssss ......

MY WEEKLY TAKE ....

Trading levels  ---  11th / 15th    February    2013

We have had 6 down days out of 7 trading days including the FAO expiry day on 31st January …. And the plus day was paltry 3 points positive close. In al,l we have lost 152 points from Wednesdays ( 30th Jan ) close of 6055.

This has happened in-spite of  FIIs having brought in nearly 1.5 billion dollars in these 7 days. That tells a lot about market internals and heavy selling by DIIs. I HAVE BEEN HARPING ABOUT THIS FOR LAST SEVERAL WEEKS WHEN EVERYBODY WAS GOING GA-GA ABOUT NIFTY AND PREDICTING NEW HIGH AND WHAT NOT.

All heavyweight NIFTY stocks, except ITC and IT stock,s  have corrected by more than 10 % in last 5/6 weeks and result is a 180/200 point cut on NIFTY in 4 weeks. 

Vicious sector rotation was witnessed and except IT all other sectors have given-up significant gains. ENERGY sector which was considered the backbone of future rally – after the partial de-regulation of diesel prices – has suffered the most in last 2 weeks.

Next week could be a neutral week with alternate bouts of buying and selling as bulls will desperately try to defend 5900 NIFTY level. Our obliging FM will do everything to help them by making a few announcements here and there.

I will pick out RELIANCE and CIPLA for some bounce next week as both of them are at significant support after vicious correction. If these supports fail, we may see another minimum 5 % cut on both the stocks .

The contours of the budget are now becoming a bit visible and looks like that we are in for some harsh higher tax provisions both in direct and indirect taxes. I don’t think this feeling is not good for markets to move much higher before the budget. At most we will test 6100 before budget. That is my feeling.

ALL THIS IS PREDICATED ON STRONG FII FLOWS FOR NEXT FOUR WEEKS .
 

my weekly take .....

Trading levels  ---  4th / 8th   February    2012

RBI obliged …. Not only we got a 25 basis points REPO rate cut but surprise surprise … a 25 basis  CRR cut as well - which was not expected by many.

This meant euphoric positive reaction particularly in all rate sensitives and banks which enabled NIFTY to clear 6100. However … as expected by me ….. it dawned on the market that RBI will be sitting tight for next two meetings at-least. This means that next rate cut can be expected only in June meeting which is good 4 months away. Most market men had not expected this as they want rate cuts at regular intervals.

Markets … particularly banks sold off big time and we ended the day NEGATIVE. The chain reaction was triggered and we had two more down days resulting in a weekly close below 6000 … which was against all odds.

ALL THIS HAPPENED INSPITE OF OVER 3 BILLION DOLLARS INFLOW IN JANUARY FROM FIIs.

If you read my posts over last 6 weeks, I have been saying that there is something curious happening in this market which is just not responding commensurately to dollops of FII flows. It seems LIC has been selling blue chips left right and centre  for two reasons – 1… to create liquidity to mop-up government paper which is coming in the first quarter and 2…. They feel that valuations have gone out of sync with future earning potential.

Weekly closing below 6000 has brought in focus possibilities of further downside to 5940/ 5900 levels and that too when many market pundits were expecting a new all time high before budget.

The contours of the budget are now becoming a bit visible and looks like that we are in for some harsh higher tax provisions both in direct and indirect taxes. I don’t think this feeling is not good for markets to move much higher before the budget. At most we will test 6100 before budget. That is my feeling.

ALL THIS IS PREDICATED ON STRONG FII FLOWS FOR NEXT FOUR WEEKS .

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.
 

FEB 2012 - trading levels for global commodities .....

FEB 2012 levels ... VERY USEFUL IN TAKING OPTION BETS .....

1st feb 2012

FEB 2012 .... trading levels for world indices .....