Messages

DABUR

on long term charts .... dabur looks very good ... if it is able to give 2 weekly closes above 136 ... we are looking at 148 and 160 in next 3/4 months.

at the same time i must say that stock is running up continuously since march- april 2009 and can have a sharp correction .... 2 weekly closes below 125 shud signal exit ....

sectorally ... FMCG is now in a bit of corrective mode ... so u hv to be careful ..... i think FMCG stocks are getting distributed at higher level .... DABUR IS ALSO SHOWING SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TENDENCIES ......

WORLD INDICES - TRADING LEVELS FOR march 2013

MY WEEKLY TAKE ......

Trading levels  ---  4th / 8th  March  2013

So, We had 5th straight down week and a biggest one than the previous 4.

Italian elections did not give a clear verdict and the expense cuts in US have kicked in after the negotiations on sequester failed on 28th February night.

Our FM had the golden chance to have his name written in golden letters in the Indian economic history – like that of Mr Manmohansingh   for his 1991 budget.  However that opportunity was wasted as FM presented a very pedestrian budget similar to any household budget  an every  housewife  makes for monthly expenses.

There is nothing in the budget for Common Man / Industry / Banks / Metals / Mining  or Infrastructure. No wonder the market is sulking and all sector indices except IT are in the RED.

I am sure that the rating agencies like S&P / MOODYS / FITCH will see thru this game of arithmetical jugglery and their views will not become positive from negative.

We are again at the mercy of FIIs and our further couse will be charted by their Moneyflow.

Please have a look at list of stocks from BSE A group which are currently in short / medium term downtrend.

ALLAHABAD BANK
AUROBINDO PHARMA
CAIRN INDIA
DENA BANK
HDFC BANK
HINDALCO INDS
IDBI BANK
IDFC
MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA FINANCIAL SERVICES
MMTC
PANTALOON RETAIL
PETRONET LNG
RELIANCE CAPITAL
RELIANCE POWER
SESA GOA
SIEMENS LTD
STATE BANK
STERLITE INDS
SYNDICATE BANK
TATA STEEL

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.
 

my weekly take .....

Trading levels  ---  25th February / 1st  March  2013

We have had 4 down weeks on the trot and it is not surprising.

I track about 10 world indices and all of them are giving topping out indications. Some of them have already started correction. S&P is probably the strongest index now but even that is facing severe resistance at higher levels. The weekly trading levels are given below and you can have a look.

However all that can mean nothing since we are facing – ones in a year event -  THE UNION BUDGET on 28th February. We will chart our own course depending on what our FM says on 28th morning.

UPA II has brought the economy in such a precarious  situation that the FM’s choice is very limited. He can only show his arithmetical skills in “showing” the budget deficit at 5.3 % of GDP.  All government expenses – planned as well as unplanned – AND THIS INCLUDES DEFENCE AS WELL - have been severely curtailed over last 3 / 4 months so that FM can reach the magic figure of 5.3 %.

This arithmetic jugglery will continue for the FY 2013/14 as well. We may have some very aggressive tax measures to shore-up the revenue side – watch out ITC -  and we are lucky if FM is not tempted to increase service tax further. If that happens – excise duties on most items also have to go up and you can then imagine the plight of the STOCK MARKET.

I will pick out ITC / PFC and AMBUJA CEMENTS for some big movement next week. It may be prudent to trade through options in view of budget on the day of expiry. WATCH THESE STOCKS.

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.

march 2012 trading levels ....

TWL .... titaghar wagons ....

stock has been beaten down to 280 due to cancellation of JV with american company ..... BUT THIS JV NEVER REALLY TOOK OFF .... NOT A RUPEE CONTRIBUTED TO REVENUE ....

 so just forget about that news and but TWL .... who knows tomorrow stock will hit 330/350 on even slight positive announcement in rail budget ...

JUST GO FOR TWL .......