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GOLD --- ABOVE 1430 ? ? ?

gold has popped its head above 1430 .... i wl be keenly watching how it trades today for the rest of the day .... particularly after the US market opens ......

tomorrow  watch this space to see if there is case for investment buying or we still hv to wait .......

MY WEEKLY TAKE ....

Trading levels  ---  15th / 19th  April   2013

Last week was a very satisfying week for me ….. as an ANALYST …. Not so much as an INVESTOR though.

1… We did hit a low of 5477 on nifty ….. you will recall that I have been saying for last 3 weeks that 5460/5480 is imminent but it is a solid support zone. We did bounce from 5477 … with some strength but INFOSYS debacle on Friday has put the recovery in doubt.

2… INFOSYS --- the day WIPRO announced results last quarter, I had written as follows ….

INFY price ...2800+ ..... is it justified ......

wipro's results hv highlighted possible fallibility of other bell weather IT results .... WIPRO has taken cognizance of debt ceiling issue ... which our armchair analysts seem to hv ignored and made some straight line projections which is the reason for ramping of INFY to 2800+ levels ....

at this juncture ... 2550 ... give or take 50 rupees seems to be PAR price .... and i am convinced that the share wl come there in due course of time ....

if any body is holding INFY .... PL BOOK OUT ... u wl get the share about 250 rupees cheaper ....... in the coming days ......

That is the reason why the stock crashed over 600 rupees on Friday  … results per say were not so bad …. But it was the expectations of analysts which had run sky high ….

Where do we go from here ? ? ?

It will be mostly dependent on big results expected next week. My charts are saying that as long as there is no disaster in any of the big, we should creep up towards 5600/ 5650 slowly ….. fortunately US markets have again shown strength and that should be a saving grace for us.

I have released monthly trading levels for APRIL 2013 on my website – www.sumamura.com under messages tab and you can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades.

MY WEEKLY TAKE ......


Trading levels --- 8th / 12th April 2013

As expected, the flourish that we saw on FAO expiry Thursday and the follow-up on Monday / Tuesday was short-lived and two big down days on Wednesday / Thursday erased all the gains and even more. Friday was also showing weakness but some amount of profit booking on short positions ensured that the market did not have a deep cut.

For last two weeks I have been writing that slide to 5460 / 5480 is imminent but that is a SOLID support zone …… I recommend to make fresh longs in major nifty components as well as NIFTY closer to 5480 with a stop loss of 5400 nifty closing level.

I had written earlier that upside momentum in US markets is waning and last week that has become more evident. This has resulted in some minor outflows on FII side which is the worst thing to happen to our markets since the whole rise from jan 2012 is only LIQUIDITY DRIVEN in-spite of deteriorating macros.

I have released monthly trading levels for APRIL 2013 on my website – www.sumamura.com under messages tab and you can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades.

The true picture of market condition is not reflected in either the NIFTY or even the MIDCAP index. Many popular counters got simply decimated and these stocks are trading at the levels lower than when nifty was at 4500 in December 2011. Many stocks have even gone lower than October 2008 levels. SUCH
IS THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE.

S&P has hit a new all time high last week but the upward momentum is lacking strength. The litmus test will come in coming week – that is what I feel.

If the resultant downslide in US markets starts within next 6 to 8 trading sessions when Indian markets are in the medium term downtrend, we can even have levels of 5200/5250 on nifty.

UNITED SPIRITS ...

some have asked me how i can be bearish on USL when all brokerages hv given lofty targets from 2000 to 2700 ....

pl note that it is a short term / med term sell .... can be a long term buy ..... what does that mean ? ....  no need to jump and grab the stocksince there is a 200 rupee correction .... good chance that u wl get the stock even cheaper in coming one or two months ....

moreover .... i hv written what the charts are telling me .... brokerages take a fundamental view .... but IF  U CAN PUT BOTH TOGETHER .... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT U WL GET A MUCH BETTER ENTRY POINT ....  people who hv entered around 2000 ... must be ruing their luck by now ...  SINCE WHO DOES NOT LIKE A HIGHER RETURN ???????

watch following BSE A group stocks .......

short / medium / long term bearish –

ambuja cements / exide ind

short / medium term bearish  –

USL / jet / ITC / HDFC / bharti / axis

medium / long term bearish –

nestle / hero moto / grasim

medium / long term bullish –

wipro /  sun pharma / dabur

short / medium term  bullish –

IGL / HUL
 

MY WEEKLY TAKE .....

Trading levels  ---  1st / 5th April   2013

Last week was a truncated week with two trading holidays. The result was very subdued trading. However,  there was a flourish on FAO expiry day - in last one hour -  particularly because of two reasons – 1…  quarter end window dressing by Indian as well as global Mutual Funds and 2…. Monday being a trading holiday in most developed markets due to EASTER, the long positions will not be under any undue pressure till Tuesday in our market.

SP has backed off a bit and there seems to be relative calm on political front. There is a possibility that we may have another 50 to 70 NIFTY points rally on Monday particularly in large cap stocks.

I have just released monthly trading levels for APRIL 2013 on my website – www.sumamura.com under messages tab and you can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades.

The true picture of market condition is not reflected in either the NIFTY or even the MIDCAP index. Many popular counters got simply decimated and these stocks are trading at the levels lower than when nifty was at 4500 in December 2011. Many stocks have even gone lower than October  2008 levels.  SUCH
IS THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE. 

I still maintain that our market may continue to underperform for some more time and I expect a strong support … a very strong one – to emerge around 5460/5480 levels. These levels may come in play in next 8 to 10 trading sessions with intervening upticks couple of times. THIS IS ASSUMING WORLD MARKETS WILL BE AT THE MOST IN SIDEWAYS PATTERN.

S&P has hit a new all time high last week but the upward momentum is lacking strength. The litmus test will come in coming two weeks – that is what I feel.

If the resultant downslide in US markets starts within next 6 to 8 trading sessions when Indian markets are in the medium term downtrend, we can even have levels of 5200/5250 on nifty.

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.
 

trading levels for APRIL 2013