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RUPEE A MAJOR CONCERN ....

with rupee a major concern ..... gold jewellery stocks is a major casulty as some more steps wl be taken to curb imports ..... dump these stocks .... and move to gold loan companies .... 

just watch out .....

 MY WEEKLY TAKE .....


Trading levels --- 17th / 21st June 2013

But for a huge up-move on Friday, NIFTY would have shown over 3.5 % cut for the week. It was actually just about 75 points. As expected short term trend seems to have changed but Mondays RBI decision about rate cut has potential to push NIFTY back into short term down trend.

I attended CNBC investor meet this morning in PUNE and no one is talking of table thumping bull trend now. What a turn around in 3 / 4 weeks. Around mid-May, everybody was talking about a new all time high and possible targets of 6500 to 6900 by Diwali. Now DOOMSAYERS are predicting 5000 in next 2 months.

As I said last week, I don’t see situation so grim that we will see 5000 in 8/10 weeks. That will break the back-bone of long term trend which started from January 2012. It will have to be some catastrophe for that to happen.

Our FM appeared on TV channels and that turned out to be an occasion to pat his own back rather than some firm announcements which market was expecting. I am convinced that some stern measures related to gold will have to be taken in coming 6 weeks as gold imports are continuing un-abated. Be wary of jewellery stocks as they can tank 20/30 % when some stern measures are announced.

Rupee dropped to an all time low of 59 mid-week when RBI intervened and it is back to 57.5 now. But 60+ levels are on the cards and it can happen anytime. This has limited the RBI ability to cut rates significantly – not only on Monday but in the months to come as well.

Bank-nifty did hit a level of 11650 – a whisker away from 11500 – my prediction. It may still happen next week … after the RBI meet. My followers are sitting on HUGE profits by shorting Bank-nifty at 13000+ levels. CHEERSSSSSSSSSS TO THEM.

MY MONTHLY LEVELS ARE WORKING JUST FINE …. WATCH THEM AND FOLLOW THEM ……

I have released monthly trading levels for JUNE 2013 on my website – www.sumamura.com under messages tab and you can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades.                                           

 MY WEEKLY TAKE .....

THANK GOD .... KVK IS OUT OF INFY ......

 INFY .... i am extremely happy .... not because NRN is back ..... its a shame on company like INFY to call back a person who has gone into retirement ..... reflects very poorly on leadership development at INFY ....

my reason of happiness is ouster of KVK .... plot ICICI and INFY graphs side by side since KVK tookover in sept 2011 .... and u can see the reason why i am happy .....

INFY became extremely volatile .... missing forecasts on most occasions and once beating it by a margin .... all this never happened till KVK came into picture ....

lets hope we wl now hv RELIABLE OLD INFY back on bourses ......
 

MY WEEKLY TAKE ......

Trading levels  ---  3rd  / 7th June    2013

The weekly closing just shows 2 point gain on NIFTY. But it hides more than what it displays. We had a tremendously volatile week with a big  gain on Monday and an equally sharp drop on Friday.

All high beta sectors and stocks are in the dumps. It seems that about 30/40 frontline stocks are in the bull market of their own while the rest of the stocks are in the BEAR market hitting new 52 week and all time lows time and again.

FIIs are chasing only the leaders and correspondingly a lot of front running is also happening in the same stocks. That way the gains are accentuated.

Thursday was FAO expiry and ITC / HDFC / HDFC bank  / INFOSYS  --- all heavyweights on nifty -  were ramped up in last 30 minutes to get a closing well above 6100. ITC moved 5 % in last 30 minutes and it has 9 % weightage on nifty. Complete move was reversed on Friday in first 2 hours setting the weak undertone.

Last week, I had clearly told that BANK NIFTY will underperform in the coming weeks and that has already happened. We may still have another 300/400 points cut on BANK NIFTY before it finds some strong support.

I had also said that every rally should be sold into till nifty crosses 6229. Just imagine if you were a seller in any frontline stocks on first four days of the week. You would have made humongous gains.

The rallies are getting narrower and narrower and this means a breakdown is imminent unless we have sudden inflow of 2/3 billion dollars in 6/7 trading sessions. THAT KIND OF FLOW WILL NEGATE ALL TECHNICALS ANY WAY.

monthly levels for JUNE 2013 ....... for indian stocks / indices ....

JUNE 2013 - monthly levels for commodities