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 MY WEEKLY TAKE ....

Trading levels --- 22nd / 26th July 2013

NIFTY showed just 20 odd points gain for the week but during the week it fluctuated over 160 odd points. Midweek, RBI surprised by some unexpected increase in MSF rates by whopping 2 % to 10.25 %. This was mainly to arrest volatility in RUPEE – DOLLAR exchange rate. But the fall out was a huge jump in bond yields – beyond 8 %. This has left debt market in a tizzy and all bank and NBFC stocks have taken a huge knock.

Saving grace was sudden up-move of over 15 % in HUL due to technical reasons with a 5 % sympathetic move in ITC and some other FMCG stocks. Strength in IT stocks on the back of excellent results by TCS meant that NIFTY saved the blushes and showed a marginal gain over the week.

In the meanwhile, Mr Bernanke’s ambivalent testimony has sparked a fresh rally in US equities. This has a rub-off effect on global equity market setting a strong undertone for equities world over.

Monthly buy trade in NIFTY is still on but seems a weak trade to me as weekly trend is still not firmly in favour of longs. If that gets confirmed on Monday, we may have another 80 / 100 points gain on NIFTY next week. Reliance results out on late Friday are a bit tepid and stock may see a 2 to 3 % cut on Monday, pegging back NIFTY.

Major FDI announcements also happened last week but had no effect on the market or the RUPEE. Government circles must be disappointed with that.

First few results have come out in favour of bulls but it is the laggards who give results late in the season. The sting is in the tail, mostly.

I have released monthly trading levels for JULY 2013 on my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/ . You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades.                                           

 INFY  ...

 MY WEEKLY TAKE .....


Trading levels --- 8th / 12th July 2013

In-spite of strong momentum of last week, the market could not show enough strength to break 5900/5920 zone. Naturally, now it is going to drift lower.

US 10 year bond yields have gone past 2.7 and that is a bad news for RUPEE and correspondingly for the equity market.

We can see significant weakness on Monday – particularly in banking stocks and rate sensitives as RBI will not cut rates even in July policy if rupee continues to trade above 60 to US Dollar.

Gold made a comeback to 1250 dollar mark but strong dollar index means it will slip again towards 1150 in coming weeks.

All in all, we will have a sideways week with downward bias and weak INFY results on 11th July, can tilt the scale decisively pushing Nifty towards 5600.

I have released monthly trading levels for JULY 2013 on my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/ . You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades.                                           

 MY WEEKLY TAKE .....

Trading levels  --- 1^st / 5^th July 2013

This government acts when pushed against the wall …. In September 2012, It was threat of sovereign downgrade and on Thursday it was Rupee threatening to break the  level of 61 to a US Dollar.

The CCEA cleared the important gas pricing proposal doubling the price to 8.4 dollars per MMBTU. Whatever the consequences, the government showed the will to act and that was enough for the market to vault to a 2 week high.

Last week I had pointed out 5570/80 as important and strong support level for NIFTY and it worked out precisely. We bounced from a low of 5566 on Monday to  a high of 5852 on Friday. A nearly 290 point rise. The levels worked for BANK NIFTY also. But for small aberration on Wednesday late afternoon, we have closed good 600 points above the low.

Where do we go from here ? That is a million dollar question.

The strong momentum of Thursday and Friday can take us to 5900/5920 levels. It has that potential. But anything beyond that can be difficult unless we have strong global cues and FII inflows.

One of the FED official is making a statement on Tuesday and it will be very keenly watched by all global markets.

US markets have a truncated week –Independence Day on 4^th July -  and this lack of US clues will allow our operators to rig the market the way they want. I will not be surprised if we have even 15/20 % moves on momentum  / high beta stocks mid week.

I have released monthly trading levels for JULY 2013 on my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/. You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. 

 JULY LEVELS FOR IMPORTANT INDIAN INDICES AND STOCKS ...

 JULY LEVELS FOR IMPORTANT WORLD INDICES .....

 JULY LEVELS FOR SOME GLOBAL COMMODITIES .....

 MY WEEKLY TAKE .....

 ON 20TH JUNE, I HAD SAID TO DUMP ALL JEWELLERY STOCKS ..... I HOPE ATLEAST A FEW LISTENED TO ME ...... THEY HV SAVED THEIR SKIN ..... OTHERS .....  WHO R STILL HOLDING .... have roasted bums .........