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TCS .... it had the best qtr for sometime to come ..... and it had an EPS of approx 24 ..... ... half yearly EPS is around 43/44 ....

as such, it looks difficult for stock to clock annual - FY 14 EPS of 92 ..... may be 88/90 is more reallistic .... unless we hv a big rupee depreciation again ........ in that case all bets r off in any case ....... for the whole market as well ......

i expect stock to settle between 2000 / 2050 in near future ..... may be when overall market will get slightly weaker ......

this is a long settlement and buying 2100 put around 18 rupees is not a bad idea .... 50 % chance that u wl get 150/200 % return in next 2 weeks ........

TCS .... i hv a feeling that TCS has booked lots of dollar / euro earnings around average of 64/65 level last quarter .... this has resulted in a big EPS jump .... i think to the tune of about 15 % +

if u take out that .... since now dollar is steady around 61/62 ..... EPS wud hv been around 21 max ....

so this 3 rupee extra eps has to betreated as OTHER INCOME ..... which will accrue one time ....

so 88 max 90 annual EPS is just right ......

i am ignoring US govt shutdown for last 2 weeks .... which also may hv some adverse impact .......

so overall ..... TCS wl hv an herculean task to clear 90 annual EPS ......

POSN TRADING	weekly	DATE	14th / 18th october 2013
stocks / indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
ALWAYS PREFER TRADES IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY
cnx nifty	short	6050	5983/16/849	6117
cnx nifty	long	6117	6184/251	6050
bse sensex	short	20375	20150/19925/700	20600
bse sensex	long	20600	20825/21050/275/500	20375
BANK NIFTY	Short	10500	10390/280/170/060	10610
BANK NIFTY	Long	10610	10720/830/940/11050	10500
CNX IT	Short	8780	8700/620/540/460	8860
CNX IT	Long	8860	8940/9020/9100	8780
axis bank	Short	1094	1080/66/52/38/24/10	1108
axis bank	Long	1108	1122/36/50	1094
BHARTI	Short	332	328/24/20/16/12	336
BHARTI	Long	336	340/44/48/52/56	332
CIPLA	Short	428.5	424/19.5/15/10.5/06/01.5	433
CIPLA	Long	433	437.5/42/46.5/51	428.5
dr reddys	Short	2371	2343/15/2285/57/29/01	2399
dr reddys	Long	2399	2427/55/83/2511	2371
HDFC	Short	803	796/89/82/85/78/71	810
HDFC	Long	810	817/24/31/38/45	803
hdfc bank	Short	658.5	653/47.5/42/36.5/31/225.5/20	664
hdfc bank	Long	664	669.5/75/80.5/86	658.5
HUL	Short	601	595/89/83/77/71	607
HUL	Long	607	613/19/25	601
INFOSYS	Short	3247	3218/3189/60/31/02/3073/44	3276
INFOSYS	long	3276	3305/34/63/92	3247
ICICI BANK	Short	980	965/50/35/20/05	987.5
ICICI BANK	Long	995	1010/25/40/55	987.5
IDEA	Short	182	180/78/76/74	184
IDEA	long	184	186/88/90/92	182
ITC	Short	340	336.5/33/29.5/26	343.5
ITC	Long	343.5	347/50.5/54	340
LT	Short	879	870/60/51/41	889
LT	Long	889	898/908/17/27	879
M&M	Short	863	850/37/24/11/798	876
M&M	Long	876	889/902/15/28	863
MARUTI	Short	1459	1447/35/23/11/1399	1471
MARUTI	Long	1471	1483/95/1507/19	1459
ONGC	Short	275.5	272.5/70/67/64.5	278
ONGC	long	278	281/83.5/86.5/89	275.5
RELIANCE	Short	855	849/43/37/31/25/19	861
RELIANCE	long	861	867/73/79/85/91/97	855
SBI	Short	1640	1619/1598/77/56	1661
SBI	Long	1661	1682/1703/24/45	1640
TATAMOTORS	Short	379	373/67/61/5/49/43	382
TATAMOTORS	Long	385	391/97/403	382
TATASTEEL	Short	303.5	300/296.5/93/89.5/86	307
TATASTEEL	Long	307	310.5/14/17.5/21	303.5
TCS	Short	2117	2099/81/63/45/27/09/1991/73/55	2135
TCS	Long	2135	2153/71/89/2207/25/43	2117
ultratech	Short	1957	1931/05/1879/53	1983
ultratech	Long	1983	2009/35/61	1957

weekly		DATE	14th / 18th october 2013
commodity	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
gold	short	1274	1264.5/55/45.5/36/26.5/17	1283.5	US$ / T ounce
gold	long	1293	1302.5/12/21.5/31	1283.5
silver	short	21.25	21.0/20.8/20.57/20.35	21.48	US$ / T ounce
silver	long	21.48	21.7/21.93/22.15	21.25
crude	short	102.2	101/99.8/98.6/97.4	103.4	US$ / barrel
crude	long	103.4	104.6/05.8/07	102.2

i wl be travelling to germany untill 10th october. i will post levels tomorrow as usual.

but after that next posting will be on 12th october only.

pl take note.

madhav ranade

commodity weekly projections ...

weekly		DATE	23rd / 27th september 2013
commodity	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
gold	short	1332	1312/1292/72/52	1342	US$ / T ounce	↓
gold	long	1352	1372/92/1402	1342
silver	short	21.97	21.76/21.55/21.34/21.13/20.92/20.71/20.5	22.18	US$ / T ounce	↓
silver	long	22.18	22.39/22.6/22.81/23.02/23.23	21.97
crude	short	105.4	104.6/03.8/03/02.2/01.4/0.6	106.2	US$ / barrel	↓
crude	long	106.2	107/07.8/08.6/09.4/10.2/11	105.4
nat gas	short	3.665	.62/3.575/3.53/3.485/3.44	3.71	US$ / 10K MMBTU	↑
nat gas	long	3.71	3.755/3.8/3.845/3.89	3.665
copper	short	3.29	3.26/3.23/3.2	3.32	US$ / pound	↑
copper	long	3.32	3.35/3.38/3.42/3.44	3.29
sugar	short	486.5	481.5/76.5	491.5	US$ / tonne	↓
sugar	long	491.5	496.5/501.5	486.5

weekly commodity levels ...

weekly		DATE	16th / 20th september 2013
commodity	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
gold	short	1310	1292/74/56/38/20	1328	US$ / T ounce	↓
gold	long	1328	1346/64/82/1400	1310
silver	short	21.69	21.43/21.17/20.91/20.65/20.49	21.95	US$ / T ounce	↓
silver	long	21.95	22.21/22.47/22.73/22.99	21.69
crude	short	108	106.75/05.5/04.25/03/01.75/100.5	109.25	US$ / barrel	↓
crude	long	109.25	110.5/11.75/13/14.25/15.5	108
nat gas	short	3.655	3.63/3.605/3.58/3.555/3.53	3.655	US$ / 10K MMBTU	↑
nat gas	long	3.68	3.705/3.73/3.755/3.78	3.68
copper	short	3.2	3.17/3.14/3.11/3.08	3.23	US$ / pound	↓
copper	long	3.23	3.26/3.29/3.32	3.2
sugar	short	486	480/74/68	492	US$ / tonne	↑
sugar	long	492	498/504/510/16	486

weekly world indices levels ....

weekly		DATE	16th / 20th september 2013
world indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
S & P	short	1683	1671/59/47/35/23/11/1599	1695	↑
S & P	long	1695	1707/19/31/43	1683
nasdaq comp	short	3694	3669/44/19/594/69	3719	↑
nasdaq comp	long	3719	3744/69/94/819	3694
dow jones	short	15300	15220/140/060/14980/900/820/740	15380	↑
dow jones	long	15380	15460/540/620/700	15300
FTSE	short	6545	6490/435/380/325/270	6600	↑
FTSE	long	6600	6655/710/765/820	6545
nikkei	short	14245	14110/13975/840/705	14380	↑
nikkei	long	14380	14515/650/785/920	14245
australian ord	short	5165	5125/080/040	5210	↑
australian ord	long	5210	5250/295/335	5165
hangseng	short	22750	22600/450/300/150/22000	22900	↑
hangseng	long	22900	23050/200/350/500	22750
shanghai	short	2218	2198/78/58/38	2238	↑
shanghai	long	2238	2258/78/98	2218

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