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weekly		DATE	21st / 25th april 2014
world indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
S & P	short	1854	1840/26/12/1798/84	1868
S & P	long	1868	1882/96/1910	1854
nasdaq comp	short	4072	4021/3970/19/3868	4123
nasdaq comp	long	4123	4174/225/276	4072
dow jones	short	16340	16180/020/15860/700	16500
dow jones	long	16500	16660/820/980	16340
FTSE	short	6600	6530/460/390/320	6670
FTSE	long	6670	6740/810	6600
nikkei	short	14400	14230/060/13890	14570
nikkei	long	14570	14740/910	14400
australian ord	short	5390	5340/290/240/190	5440
australian ord	long	5440	5490/540/590/640	5390
hangseng	short	22530	22280/030/21780/530	22780
hangseng	long	22780	23030/280/530	22530
shanghai	short	2092	2070/48/26/04	2114
shanghai	long	2114	2136/58/80	2092

intra day		DATE	21st april 2014
stocks / indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
PREFER TO TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY . . .
bank nifty	short	12770	12690/610/530/450	12850
bank nifty	long	12850	12930/13010/090	12770
RELIANCE	short	961	956.5/52/47.5/43	965.5
RELIANCE	long	970	974.5/79/83.5/88	965.5
SBI	short	2015	1998/81/64/47/30	2032
SBI	long	2032	2049/66/83/2100	2015
ICICI BANK	short	1265	1259/53/47/41	1271
ICICI BANK	long	1271	1277/83/89	1265
LT	short	1265	1257/48/40	1274
LT	long	1274	1282/91/99	1265
TATA MOTORS	short	428	425.5/23/20.5	430.5
TATA MOTORS	long	430.5	433/35.5/38	428
LIC HSG FIN	short	268	265/62/59/56/53/50	271
LIC HSG FIN	long	271	274/77/80	268
ARVIND	short	191	189.5/88/86.5/85	192.5
ARVIND	long	192.5	194/95.5/97/98.5/200	191
jubilant food	short	975	965/55/45/35	985
jubilant food	long	985	995/1005/15/25	975
CEAT	short	393	390.5/88/85.5/83	395.5
CEAT	long	398	400.5/03/05.5/08	395.5
WIPRO	short	576	569/62/55/48	583
WIPRO	long	590	597/604/11/18	583

weekly		DATE	21st / 25th april 2014
commodity	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
gold	short	1300	1285/70/5/40/25/10	1315	US$ / T ounce
gold	long	1315	1330/45/60/75/90	1300
silver	short	19.6	19.42/19.24/19.06/18.88/18.7	19.78	US$ / T ounce
silver	long	19.78	19.96/20.14/20.32/20.5	19.6
crude	short	103.75	102.5/01.25/100	105	US$ / barrel
crude	long	105	106.25/07.5/08.75/10	103.75

MY WEEKLY TAKE .....

Trading levels --- 21^st / 25^th April 2014

Last week was a short, truncated week with just 3 day trading in between Monday and Friday holidays. We continued the downtrend started on last Friday for first two days but had a sharp reversal – up-move – on Thursday to close the week with a 3 point gain.

As expected the IT results – Infosys and TCS – were lackluster BUT THEY WERE IN-LINE WITH EXPECTATION. Hence there was no sell-off. RELIANCE has declared annual results on Friday evening. They also seem to be in-line with expectation but I expect a minor sell-off on Monday to about 930/935 level putting the NIFTY on the back foot.

Thursdays 100+ points NIFTY move seems to be driven by local operators / HNI crowd as there is no big FII inflow figure associated with it. Thus, there is a danger that we may have reversal of this move in the coming week.

I expect BANKING to come under pressure again as monsoon forecast is not good and RBI will not be cutting rates in near future. IT SEEMS THAT THE NAMO GOVERNMENT HAS ITS TASK CUT OUT AND IT IS NOT GOING TO BE EASY TO TURN AROUND THE ECONOMY AS OPTIONS ARE VERY LIMITED.

THIS REALITY IS GOING TO SINK IN COMING FEW WEEKS AND THEN THE EUPHORIA WILL FADE.

I have talked about global set-up last week and we must watch that space very closely.

I have started thinking of deploying part of the cash holding in frontline IT stocks as these will act as best defense if there is severe mid-may market reversal. All other stocks - including big FMCG / consumption names which were holding sway earlier - will simply collapse denting your portfolio severely.

12800/12300 BANKNIFTY BEAR SPREAD made good money last week and I will request you to repeat same trade again. Pay-off will be even better this time.

As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado does not help. WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?

APRIL 2014 TRADING LEVELS are out on 2^nd April . You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. I have also released CY 2014 trading levels on my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/.

Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce and needs to be respected.

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.

Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.

I am available on yahoo messenger on most of the trading days and you can add me on your yahoo messenger. My yahoo id is madhavranade1

Keep watching my website www.sumamura.com closely for further inputs. You need to register and login to see modules section where all the levels for different timeframes are shown.

You can view individual modules for as little as 3,000 rupees per year. A package for all 8 modules for just 30,000 rupees for the full year.

Please call me on 9371002943 for more details.

Indices weekly levels

TER POSN TRADING	weekly	DATE	21st / 25th april 2014
stocks / indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
bse sensex	short	22575	22325/075/21825	22700
bse sensex	long	22825	23075/325	22700
CNX IT	short	9370	9285/200/115/030	9455
CNX IT	long	9455	9540/625	9370
CNX AUTO	short	5860	x	5910
CNX AUTO	long	5910	x	5860
CNX ENERGY	short	8460	x	8530
CNX ENERGY	long	8530	x	8460
CNX FMCG	short	18160	x	18300
CNX FMCG	long	18300	x	18160
CNX INFRA	short	2670	x	2692
CNX INFRA	long	2692	x	2670
CNX METAL	short	2550	x	2575
CNX METAL	long	2575	x	2550
CNX MIDCAP	short	8785	x	8875
CNX MIDCAP	long	8875	x	8785
CNX PHARMA	short	7940	x	7985
CNX PHARMA	long	7985	x	7940
CNX PSU BANKS	short	2842	x	2883
CNX PSU BANKS	long	2883	x	2842
CNX REALTY	short	191	x	193
CNX REALTY	long	193	x	191

WORLD INDICES

weekly		DATE	21st / 25th april 2014
world indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
S & P	short	1854	1840/26/12/1798/84	1868
S & P	long	1868	1882/96/1910	1854
nasdaq comp	short	4072	4021/3970/19/3868	4123
nasdaq comp	long	4123	4174/225/276	4072
dow jones	short	16340	16180/020/15860/700	16500
dow jones	long	16500	16660/820/980	16340
FTSE	short	6600	6530/460/390/320	6670
FTSE	long	6670	6740/810	6600
nikkei	short	14400	14230/060/13890	14570
nikkei	long	14570	14740/910	14400
australian ord	short	5390	5340/290/240/190	5440
australian ord	long	5440	5490/540/590/640	5390
hangseng	short	22530	22280/030/21780/530	22780
hangseng	long	22780	23030/280/530	22530
shanghai	short	2092	2070/48/26/04	2114
shanghai	long	2114	2136/58/80	2092

COMMODITIES

weekly		DATE	21st / 25th april 2014
commodity	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
gold	short	1300	1285/70/5/40/25/10	1315	US$ / T ounce
gold	long	1315	1330/45/60/75/90	1300
silver	short	19.6	19.42/19.24/19.06/18.88/18.7	19.78	US$ / T ounce
silver	long	19.78	19.96/20.14/20.32/20.5	19.6
crude	short	103.75	102.5/01.25/100	105	US$ / barrel
crude	long	105	106.25/07.5/08.75/10	103.75

NIFTY SPOT INTRA

intra day		DATE	17th april 2014
stocks / indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
PREFER TO TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY . . .
bank nifty	short	12540	12470/400/330/260	12610
bank nifty	long	12610	12680/750/820/890	12540
RELIANCE	short	942	938/34/30	946
RELIANCE	long	946	950/54/58	942
voltas	short	157.5	156/54.5/53/51.5/50	159
voltas	long	159	160.5/62	157.5
apollo tyres	short	161	160/59/58/57/56/55	162
apollo tyres	long	162	163/64/65	161
cipla	short	397	394/91/88/85	400
cipla	long	400	403/06/09/12/15	397
DLF	short	157.5	155/52.5/50/47.5	158.75
DLF	long	160	162.5/65	158.75
ABAN	short	511	506.5/02/497.5/93	515.5
ABAN	long	515.5	520/24.5/29	511

intra day		DATE	16th april 2014
stocks / indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
PREFER TO TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY . . .
bank nifty	short	12570	12500/430/360/290	12640
bank nifty	long	12640	12710/780/850	12570
RELIANCE	short	950	945/40/35/30	955
RELIANCE	long	955	960/65	950
SBI	short	1971	1959/47/35/23	1983
SBI	long	1983	1995/2007	1971
icici bank	short	1223	1216/09/02/1195	1230
icici bank	long	1230	1237/44	1223
LT	short	1300	1290/80/70/60/50	1310
LT	long	1310	1320/30/40	1300
TATA MOTORS	short	412.00	408.5/05/01.5	415.5
TATA MOTORS	long	415.5	419/22.5	412
BEML	short	405.5	400/394.5/89/83.5/78	411
BEML	long	411	416.5/22	405.5
INFY	short	3246	3226/05	3267
INFY	long	3267	3287/308/28	3246
BOI	short	219	217.5/16/14.5/13/11.5/10	220.5
BOI	long	222	223.5/25/26.5/28	220.5
DLF	short	165.5	164/62.5/61/59.5/58	167
DLF	long	167	168.5/70	165.5
ABAN	short	521.5	517/12.5/08/03.5/499	526
ABAN	long	526	530.5/35/39.5	521.5

Trading levels --- 14^th / 18^th April 2014

In the last two weeks, FIIs continued to pump in money – albeit at a slightly slower pace than in March – we just got 4500 odd crores of Rupees in first 10 days and a small negative figure on Friday 11^th April. This negative figure is significant since it is appearing nearly after 25 trading sessions. Slowing of FII inflow has meant that NIFTY has gone up by only 80 odd points in last 2 weeks.

IT has continued to underperform but banking has gone up relentlessly except for last trading session. The momentum in banking stocks when they make an up-move is so great that even the seasoned BEARS are simply scared of going short on any banking stock. ENERGY and PSUs have been chugging along adding to banking strength.

We have hit 6800+ NIFTY levels where some strong resistance is setting in. Bears should take some clues from this and enter short trades at an opportune time as bulls are bound to look at booking some profit under some pretext in next 4/5 sessions. INFY / TCS results could be one such excuse. IT is looking weak and can pull down nifty by a couple of percentage points.

Global set-up is also looking weak. It will not be out of place to mention THAT IN OCT/ NOV 2007, MOST GLOBAL MARKETS TOPPED OUT WHEN WE WERE ROARING …. EVERYONE KNOWS WHAT HAPPENED IN JAN 2008. Is there a chance of history repeating ???

I have still not got a chance to deploy my cash but it will come soon… till then sell slowly in counters which are giving worthwhile returns. Finally cash in the bank is what matters.

I want to recommend 12800 / 12300 bank nifty bear spread which will cost u just about 2000 odd rupees and Rs 20,000 margin with possibility of 4,000 rupees gain. BEAR IN MIND THAT IT RESULTS CAN TRIGGER A DOWNSIDE IN NIFTY.