Messages

Monday, October 20 2014
08:32 AM

 

POSN TRADING

weekly

DATE

20th / 24th october

 

stocks / indices

go

entry

Target

Stoploss

ALWAYS PREFER TRADES IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY

cnx nifty

short

7786

7729/672/615

7843

long

7843

7900/7957/8014/71

7786

bse sensex

short

26170

25990/810/630

26350

long

26350

26530/710/890/27070

26170

 BANK NIFTY

Short

15990

15800/610/420/230/040

16180

Long

16180

16370/560

15990

CNX IT

short

10750

10670/590/510/430

10830

long

10830

10910/990/11070/150

10750

aurobindo

Short

937

924/11/898/85/72/59

950

Long

950

963/76/89/1002

937

axis bank

Short

406.5

403/399.5/96/92.5/89/85.5/82

410

Long

413.5

417/20.5/24

410

BOB

Short

876

867/58/49/40/31

885

Long

885

894/903/12/21

876

BHARAT FORGE

Short

759.5

749/38.5/28/17.5/07

770

Long

770

780.5/91/801.5/12

759.5

BHARTI

Short

392

387/82/77/72

394.5

Long

397

402/07/12

394.5

CIPLA

Short

597

589/81/73/65

605

Long

605

613/21/29

597

COAL INDIA

Short

351

346/41/36/31

356

Long

356

361/66/71/76

351

dr reddys

Short

2950

2914/2882/46/10

2986

Long

2986

3022/58

2950

glenmark pharma

Short

718

712/06/700/694

724

Long

724

730/36/42/48

718

HCL TECH

Short

1522

1508/1494/80

1536

long

1536

1550/64

1522

HDFC

Short

1011

1000/989/78

1022

Long

1022

1033/44/55/66

1011

hdfc bank

Short

888

877/66/55/44

899

Long

899

910/21/32

888

HUL

Short

730

721.5/13/04.5/696

738.5

Long

738.5

747/55.5/64

730

ICICI BANK

Short

1524

1511.5/1499/86.5/74/61.5/49

1536.5

Long

1536.5

1549/61.5/74

1524

IDEA

Short

154

152.75/51.5/50.25/49

155.25

long

156.5

157.75/59/60.25/61.5

155.25

IDFC

Short

139.5

137.75/36/34.25

141.25

Long

141.25

143/44.75/46.5

139.5

INFOSYS

Short

3882

3834/3786/38/690

3930

long

3930

3978/4026

3882

ITC

Short

356

353/50/47/44/41/38

359

Long

359

362/65/68

356

LT

Short

1467

1454/40/27/13

1481

Long

1481

1494/1508/21

1467

M&M

Short

1259

1250/41/32

1268

Long

1277

1286/95/1304

1268

MARUTI

Short

2970

2950/30/10

2990

Long

3010

3030/50/70

2990

ONGC

Short

405

399/93/87

411

long

411

417/23/29/35

405

RELIANCE

Short

951

939/27/15

963

long

963

975/87/99

951

SESA

Short

235

232/29/26/23/20

238

Long

238

241/44/47/50

235

SBI

Short

2530

2502/2474/46/18

2558

Long

2558

2586/614/42/70

2530

sun pharma

Short

797

787/77/67/57

807

Long

807

817/27/37/47

797

TATAMOTORS

Short

478.5

474/69.5/65/60.5

483

Long

483

487.5/92/96.5/501

478.5

TATASTEEL

Short

447

441.5/36/30.5/25/19.5/14

452.5

Long

452.5

458/63.5/69

447

TCS

Short

2440

2420/400/380/360

2460

Long

2480

2500/520/540

2460

tech mahindra

Short

2265

2240/15/2190/65

2290

Long

2290

2315/40/65/90

2265

ULTRATECH

Short

2346

2325/05/2284/64

2366

Long

2366

2387/407/428/48

2346

VOLTAS

Short

230.5

222/19/16/13/10/07/04/01

233.25

Long

236

241.5/47/52.5/58

233.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNX AUTO

short

7530

x

7600

long

7600

x

7530

CNX ENERGY

short

9160

x

9240

long

9240

x

9160

CNX FMCG

short

19060

x

19180

long

19180

x

19060

CNX INFRA

short

2990

x

3015

long

3015

x

2990

CNX METAL

short

2700

x

2736

long

2736

x

2700

CNX MIDCAP

short

11050

x

11200

long

11200

x

11050

CNX PHARMA

short

10190

x

10290

long

10290

x

10190

CNX PSU BANKS

short

3505

x

3535

long

3535

x

3505

CNX REALTY

short

185

x

187.25

long

189.5

x

187.25


08:38 AM

 my weekly take ....

 

MARKET WOBBLY BUT STILL SHOWING RESILIENCE  . . .

 

 

Trading levels --- 20th/ 24th  October   2014

 

This week was also truncated since Mumbai  had state assembly elections on 15th. NIFTY closed below 50 DMA every trading day and tested 100 DMA once but bounced on the last trading day. PHARMA IS THE ONLY SECTORAL INDEX WHICH IS FIRMLY ABOVE 50 DMA. IT index slipped below 50 DMA after HCL-Tech and TCS gave results below market expectations. THE RESULTS PER SE ARE OK BUT THE MARKET EXPECTATIONS ARE RUNNING SKY HIGH.

 

BANK NIFTY kept on yo-yoing just around 50 DMA finally closing the week above. Over the last weekend we had terrible IIP numbers. At the beginning of the week, we had very good CPI and WPI inflation figures. Putting these two facts together,  the  bulls have started penciling in a RBI rate cut sooner than earlier expectation. HENCE THE STRENGTH IN BANK NIFTY.

 

As expected, most global indices have closed below 200 DMA and this will mean continued weakness in our market as well.  Friday was much better for global markets as one of the Regional FED governors appealed to Ms Yelen to continue the bond purchase beyond stipulated period. Ms Yelen although did not give any reaction, American markets are expecting FED to throw another lifeline in case of distress.

 

I expect market to have negative bias till it closes above 7920 / 7940 zone. Till then one should keep reducing short term long positions on every rise. Although the indicated level is just 150 points away, the climb is not going to be easy as CNX IT is not supportive any more. HOWEVER, SUNDAYS STATE ELECTION RESULTS CAN HELP GREATLY IF BJP IS ABLE TO FORM GOVERNMENTS ON THEIR OWN OR WITH MINOR HELP.

 

Overall the set up still continues to look wobbly and a hung assembly in Maharashtra and Haryana  - with BJP doing not very well - as expected, will rock the boat viciously.

 

As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado or blind  consensus following  does not help.  I HAVE JUST GIVEN YOU SOME FOOD FOR YOUR GREY CELLS.   WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?

 

OCTOBER 2014 TRADING LEVELS are out   over the long weekend. You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. I have also released CY 2014  trading levels  on my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/

 

Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce  - even for Mr Buffet  and needs to be respected.

 

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.

 

Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.

 

I am available on yahoo messenger on most of the trading days and you can add me on your yahoo messenger. My yahoo id is madhavranade1

 

Keep watching my website www.sumamura.com closely for further inputs. You need to register and login to see modules section where all the levels for different timeframes are  shown.

 

You can view individual modules for as little as 3,000 rupees per year. A package for all  8  modules for  just 30,000 rupees  for the full year.

 

Please call me on 9371002943 for more details.

 

 

 

Indices  weekly levels

 

TER POSN TRADING

weekly

DATE

20th / 24th october

 

stocks / indices

go

entry

Target

Stoploss

bse sensex

short

26170

25990/810/630

26350

long

26350

26530/710/890/27070

26170

CNX IT

short

10750

10670/590/510/430

10830

long

10830

10910/990/11070/150

10750

CNX AUTO

short

7530

x

7600

long

7600

x

7530

CNX ENERGY

short

9160

x

9240

long

9240

x

9160

CNX FMCG

short

19060

x

19180

long

19180

x

19060

CNX INFRA

short

2990

x

3015

long

3015

x

2990

CNX METAL

short

2700

x

2736

long

2736

x

2700

CNX MIDCAP

short

11050

x

11200

long

11200

x

11050

CNX PHARMA

short

10190

x

10290

long

10290

x

10190

CNX PSU BANKS

short

3505

x

3535

long

3535

x

3505

CNX REALTY

short

185

x

187.25

long

189.5

x

187.25

 

 


08:59 AM

 

PREFER TO TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY

intra levels

 

DATE

20th october 2014

 

stocks / indices

go

entry

Target

Stoploss

NIFTY SPOT

short

7902

7885/67/50/32

7920

long

7937

7955/72/90/8007

7920

bank nifty

short

16060

16005/15950/895/840

16115

long

16115

16170/225/280

16060

tcs

short

2457

2440/23/06

2474

long

2474

2491/2508/25

2457

tata motors

short

481

477.5/74/70.5

484.5

long

484.5

488/91.5/95

481

axis bank

short

403

398.5/94

407.5

long

407.5

412/16.5/21

403

ongc

short

405.5

401.5/397.5

409.5

long

409.5

413.5/17.5/21.5

405.5


Thursday, October 16 2014
08:55 AM

 

PREFER TO TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY

intra levels

 

DATE

16th october 2014

 

stocks / indices

go

entry

Target

Stoploss

NIFTY SPOT

short

7856

7845/34/23/12/01

7867

long

7878

7889/7900/11/22/33

7867

bank nifty

short

15710

15635/560/485/410

15785

long

15785

15860/935/16010

15710

reliance

short

957

951/45/39

963

long

963

969/75/81

957

tata steel

short

433

428.5/24/19.5/15

437.5

long

437.5

442/46.5/51

433

grasim

short

3387

3370/53/36/19/02

3404

long

3404

3421/38/55

3387

indusind bank

short

647

644/41/38/35

650

long

653

656/59/62/65

650


Tuesday, October 14 2014
09:08 AM

 

PREFER TO TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY

intra levels

 

DATE

14th october 2014

 

stocks / indices

go

entry

Target

Stoploss

NIFTY SPOT

short

7910

7890/870/850

7930

long

7930

7950/70/90

7910

bank nifty

short

15710

15635/560/485/410

15785

long

15785

15860/935/16010

15710

reliance

short

964

957/50/43/36

971

long

971

978/85/92

964

M SUMI

short

383

380/77/74/71/68

386

long

386

389/92/95/98

383

bharat forge

short

770

764/59/53/48

775

long

775

781/86/92/97

770

WIPRO

short

585

579/73

591

long

591

597/603

585


Monday, October 13 2014
08:40 AM

 

POSN TRADING

weekly

DATE

13th / 17th  october 2014

 

stocks / indices

go

entry

Target

Stoploss

ALWAYS PREFER TRADES IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY

cnx nifty

short

7825

7770/15/7660/05/550

7880

long

7880

7935/90/8045/8100

7825

bse sensex

short

26225

26025/25825/635/425

26425

long

26425

26625/825/27025

26225

 BANK NIFTY

Short

15225

15075/14925/775/625

15375

Long

15375

15525/675

15225

CNX IT

short

11300

11215/130/045

11385

long

11385

11470/555/640/725/810

11300

aurobindo

Short

939

932/25/18/11/04/897/90/83/76

946

Long

953

960/67/74/81/88/95/1002

946

axis bank

Short

376

371/66/61

378.5

Long

381

386/91/96

378.5

BOB

Short

855

845/35/25

865

Long

865

875/85/95

855

BHARAT FORGE

Short

758

748/38/28/18/08

768

Long

768

778/88/98/808

758

BHARTI

Short

392

387/82/77/72

394.5

Long

397

402/07/12

394.5

CIPLA

Short

590.5

584/77.5/71/64.5/58

597

Long

597

603.5/10

590.5

COAL INDIA

Short

335.5

332/28.5/25

339

Long

339

342.5/46/49.5/53

335.5

dr reddys

Short

2985

2945/05/2865/25

3025

Long

3065

3105/45/85

3025

glenmark pharma

Short

712

705/698/91/84/77/70

719

Long

719

726/33/40

712

HCL TECH

Short

1008

998/88/78/68/58

1018

long

1018

1028/38/48

1008

HDFC

Short

1045

1035/25/15/05

1055

Long

1055

1065/75/85

1045

hdfc bank

Short

866

858/50/42/34

874

Long

874

882/90/98

866

HUL

Short

722

711/700/689

727.5

Long

733

744/55/66

727.5

ICICI BANK

Short

1451

1438/25/12/1399/86/73/60

1464

Long

1464

1477/90/1503/16

1451

IDEA

Short

160.5

158.75/57/55.25/53.5

162.25

long

162.25

164/65.75/67.5

160.5

IDFC

Short

138

136.5/35/33.5/32

139.5

Long

139.5

141/42.5/44

138

INFOSYS

Short

3904

3864/26/788

3942

long

3942

3980/4018

3904

ITC

Short

353

349.5/46/42.5/39

356.5

Long

356.5

360/63.5/67

353

LT

Short

1463

1448/33/18/03/1388/73

1478

Long

1478

1493/1508/23/38

1463

M&M

Short

1310

1296/82/68/54/40

1324

Long

1324

1338/52/66/80

1310

MARUTI

Short

2948

2920/2892/64/36/08/2784

2976

Long

2976

3004/32/60

2948

ONGC

Short

399

394.5/90/85.5/81/76.5/72

403.5

long

403.5

408/12.5/17

399

RELIANCE

Short

954

946.5/39/31.5/24

961.5

long

961.5

969/76.5/84/91.5/99

954

SESA

Short

247

243.5/40/36.5/33/29.5

250.5

Long

254

257.5/61/64.5/68

250.5

SBI

Short

2416

2386/56/26/2296/66/36/06

2446

Long

2446

2476/2506/36/66/96

2416

sun pharma

Short

821

813/05/797/89/81/73

829

Long

829

837/45/53/61

821

TATAMOTORS

Short

490

484/78/72

496

Long

496

502/08/14/20

490

TATASTEEL

Short

448

442/36/30/24/18/12/06/400

454

Long

454

460/66/72/78/84/90

448

TCS

Short

2665

2642/19/2596/73/50

2688

Long

2688

2711/34/57/80

2665

tech mahindra

Short

2335

2300/2265/30/2195/60

2370

Long

2370

2405/40/75/2510

2335

ULTRATECH

Short

2470

2445/20/2395/70/45/20/2295/70

2495

Long

2495

2520/45/70/95

2470

VOLTAS

Short

225

222/19/16/13/10/07/04/01

228

Long

231

234/37/40/43

228

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNX AUTO

short

7730

x

7790

long

7790

x

7730

CNX ENERGY

short

9300

x

9375

long

9375

x

9300

CNX FMCG

short

19040

x

19190

long

19190

x

19040

CNX INFRA

short

3021

x

3048

long

3048

x

3021

CNX METAL

short

2767

x

2804

long

2804

x

2767

CNX MIDCAP

short

11240

x

11330

long

11330

x

11240

CNX PHARMA

short

10300

x

10400

long

10400

x

10800

CNX PSU BANKS

short

3360

x

3385

long

3385

x

3360

CNX REALTY

short

204.5

x

208

long

208

x

204.5


09:02 AM

 

PREFER TO TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY

intra levels

 

DATE

13th october 2014

 

stocks / indices

go

entry

Target

Stoploss

NIFTY SPOT

short

7821

7799/77/55

7843

long

7843

7865/87

7821

bank nifty

short

15340

15255/170/085/15000

15425

long

15425

15510/595

15340

reliance

short

957

952/47/42

962

long

962

967/72/77/82

957

hcl tech

short

1729

1717/05/1693

1741

long

1741

1753/65/77/89/1801

1729

bharat forge

short

758

753/48/43/38/33

763

long

768

773/78

763

INFY

short

3877

3847/17

3907

long

3907

3937/67/97

3877


Sunday, October 12 2014
10:13 AM

 MARKET ABOUT TO THROW IN THE TOWEL . . .

 

 

Trading levels --- 13th   / 17th  October   2014

 

Another truncated week but this time market gives 3 closes out of 4 below 50 DMA which has happened after 24th march. Weekly close is also below 50 DMA. This is significant and indicates weakness ahead.

 

Most sectoral indices, except IT / AUTO / PHARMA and MEDIA, have closed  below 50 DMA.

 

Most global indices have closed below 50 DMA and on the verge of closing below 200 DMA. You will recall earlier – 2 weeks ago – I had mentioned that most global indices are showing topping out patterns and 30/40 %  cash can be taken off the table.

 

Last week I had written that trading bias will remain NEGATVE TILL WE BREAK-OUT ABOVE 8050. I had also written that IT majors will show significant weakness on Wednesday / Thursday – before INFY results on Friday.

 

 We have had very weak IIP  nos which were released late Friday evening confirming that 5.7 % GDP growth shown during first quarter was more like a flash in a pan.

 

Overall the set up is looking very wobbly and a hung assembly in Maharashtra and Haryana  - with BJP doing not very well - as expected, will rock the boat viciously.

 

I have spend some time today studying weekly global market set-up and it looks possible that we may have 4 to 7 % drop from current levels in next 2 to 4 weeks. If that happens , our market being a high beta market can drop by 7 to 10 %  and that means a cut of 10 to 12 %  for your equity portfolios.

 

How one protects from this possibility ? …. Book 30 to  40 % profit and move to cash. Wait patiently on the side lines and re-enter after the storm  has passed.  If the storm does not play out, you may re-enter - may be at same or slightly higher level. NOT MUCH TO LOSE but you are giving yourself a chance to save yourself from a 10/12 % cut. SEE IF THIS APPEALS TO YOU.

 

Incidentally, I could exit Reliance position with a small profit on Friday.

 

As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado or blind  consensus following  does not help.  I HAVE JUST GIVEN YOU SOME FOOD FOR YOUR GREY CELLS.   WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?

 

OCTOBER 2014 TRADING LEVELS are out   over the long weekend. You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. I have also released CY 2014  trading levels  on my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/

 

Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce  - even for Mr Buffet  and needs to be respected.

 

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.

 

Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.

 

I am available on yahoo messenger on most of the trading days and you can add me on your yahoo messenger. My yahoo id is madhavranade1

 

Keep watching my website www.sumamura.com closely for further inputs. You need to register and login to see modules section where all the levels for different timeframes are  shown.

 

You can view individual modules for as little as 3,000 rupees per year. A package for all  8  modules for  just 30,000 rupees  for the full year.

 

Please call me on 9371002943 for more details.

 

Indices  weekly levels

 

TER POSN TRADING

weekly

DATE

13th / 17th  october 2014

 

stocks / indices

go

entry

Target

Stoploss

bse sensex

short

26225

26025/25825/635/425

26425

long

26425

26625/825/27025

26225

CNX IT

short

11300

11215/130/045

11385

long

11385

11470/555/640/725/810

11300

CNX AUTO

short

7730

x

7790

long

7790

x

7730

CNX ENERGY

short

9300

x

9375

long

9375

x

9300

CNX FMCG

short

19040

x

19190

long

19190

x

19040

CNX INFRA

short

3021

x

3048

long

3048

x

3021

CNX METAL

short

2767

x

2804

long

2804

x

2767

CNX MIDCAP

short

11240

x

11330

long

11330

x

11240

CNX PHARMA

short

10300

x

10400

long

10400

x

10800

CNX PSU BANKS

short

3360

x

3385

long

3385

x

3360

CNX REALTY

short

204.5

x

208

long

208

x

204.5