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 INEVITABLE CORRECTION HAS SET IN . . .

Trading levels --- 9^th  / 13^th  FEBRUARY  2015

Last week my heading was … HAVE WE REACHED A TIPPING POINT ? ? ?   It really turned out to be like that. We have had  5 lower closes and lost  148 points. So 10 UP sessions after RBI rate cut and now 6 DOWN sessions, in a row.

What happens on Monday will be mostly decided by outcome of DELHI election exit polls which will be out today evening.  If BJP seems to be winning, we may recover some ground lost last week but we will slide further down – and rather sharply – if BJP is set to face a reversal.

In any case, BANK NIFTY which was the main driver of the rally so far, is so deep in downtrend – thanks to PSU bank dismal performance – that any NIFTY bounce should be sold into as we may slide down further again.

On weekly charts, the NIFTY/ BANK NIFTY/ PHARMA/ AUTOs have shown  negative divergences when they hit a new high in last 8/10 days. These divergences are  bound to play out.

If BJP loses DELHI , we can look at 8330 / 8350 levels on NIFTY. If at all, a pre-budget rally can then start.

Another interesting point is that there was NO SIGNIFICANT CASH SELLING by FIIs last week. In fact DIIs  bought more than that selling.   SO WHO WAS PUTTING PRESSURE ON THE MARKET ?  it could be HNIs who were doing the front running operation and have now decided to bail out at higher levels since the result season has turned out to be particularly bad and  THE FALL WAS IMMINENT.

THE BANK NIFTY  has gone back to 14^th  January ( day prior to RBI rate cut )  level neutralizing all gains. But for support from  CNX IT, we could have been down to 8500 levels by now.

On Monday morning, it may be a good idea to buy 8400 call at opening itself and hold it for 2/3 days.

As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado or blind  consensus following  does not help.  I HAVE JUST GIVEN YOU SOME FOOD FOR YOUR GREY CELLS.   WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?

JANUARY 2015 TRADING LEVELS are out over weekend.   You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. I have also released CY 2015  trading levels  on my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/. 

Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce  - even for Mr Buffet  and needs to be respected.

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.

Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.

I am available on yahoo messenger on most of the trading days and you can add me on your yahoo messenger. My yahoo id is madhavranade1

Keep watching my website www.sumamura.com closely for further inputs. You need to register and login to see modules section where all the levels for different timeframes are  shown.

You can view individual modules for as little as 3,000 rupees per year. A package for all  8  modules for  just 30,000 rupees  for the full year.

Please call me on 9371002943 for more details.

Indices  weekly levels