Messages

NO  PRE-BUDGET RALLY – ARE YOU SURPRISED ? ? ?

Trading levels – 29th  February / 4^th March   2016

I have been following UNION BUDGETS for 37 years now. BUT I HAVE NOT SEEN SUCH APATHY ANYTIME. This time no one – absolutely no one –  The Business Fraternity OR The Marketmen OR The General Public … is interested in this important event.

Let me put forward a few reasons for that…

1… MODI euphoria has fully vanished. People expected that he will do wonders with the economy. None of that sort has happened and euphoria has slowly given way to despair. NOW NO ONE HAS ANY EXPECTATIONS.

2… In spite of change in the GDP calculating methodology, we are struggling to cross 7 … at the most 7.5  annual growth rate figure. Just imagine  - in the UPA 1 regime …. We had clocked 7.5 to 8 % AVERAGE GROWTH RATE ( over 5 years ) as per the old calculation … WHICH SHUD BE GENERALLY 10+ AS PER NEW CALCULATION. Naturally, all government and private sector calculations / projections about tax collections / revenue / net profit etc have gone haywire and it is difficult to align with the reality.

3… Marketmen have realized that EARNINGS GROWTH is a reality and not some virtual calculated number. Since there is minimal earnings growth, even the high P/E discounting figures have come down resulting in to the crash of stock valuations. Most portfolios have taken a big knock and most participants are not able to bring in new cash to take advantage of attractive valuations. SO THE MARKET IS LOOKING EXTREMELY TIRED AND NOW FALLING UNDER IT’S OWN WEIGHT. SOME ANLYISTS ARE DESCRIBING THIS AS ‘BUYERS STRIKE’.

4… Global markets are in a disarray and have become extremely volatile with alternate bouts of buying and selling. They have entered a long term down trend. This  sentiment is getting reflected in our markets as well.

5… WHILE CRASH OF COMMODITIES was good for Indian economy up to a point. But now the prices are so much down that IT IS HURTING THE ECONOMY. Commodity companies are in dire straits and some are quoting even below book value. Naturally, the lending banks are also facing the heat and the vicious cycle has started.

6… LAST AND MOST IMPORTANT --- our FM is treating his responsibility like a part time job and he is seen doubling as spokesperson for the party for every small issue. FM is a full time job and we have seen how the earlier FMs have slogged for 2/3 months before the budget  and applied their mind whole heartedly to the job in hand. SOME HOW THIS ERNESTNESS IS MISSING AND CLEARLY VISIBLE TO ALL AND SUNDRY.

There is a talk of LONG TERM CAPITAL GAINS regime being tweaked. If that is a reality and there is increased fiscal deficit, we will see further selling after the budget as well, pulling the NIFTY even to the low of 6500.

I am suggesting a few stocks which u can buy  as downside risks are rather limited – ELECON / DHFL / AMARA RAJA / NBCC / IDFC BANK / RELIANCE / TATA MOTORS / MARUTI / BHARTI INFRATEL / PSU BANK BEES.  Looks like with about 8 to 10 % downside risk …. You may have 30/35 % upside in 24 months. Please study fundamentals yourself to be doubly sure.

As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado or blind  consensus following  does not help.  I HAVE JUST GIVEN YOU SOME FOOD FOR YOUR GREY CELLS.   WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?

FEBRUARY 2016 TRADING LEVELS ARE posted over the weekend   You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. Keep visiting  my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/. 

Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce  - even for Mr Buffet  and needs to be respected.

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.

Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.

I am available on yahoo messenger on most of the trading days and you can add me on your yahoo messenger. My yahoo id is madhavranade1

Keep watching my website www.sumamura.com closely for further inputs. You need to register and login to see modules section where all the levels for different timeframes are  shown.

You can view individual modules for as little as 3,000 rupees per year. A package for all  8  modules for  just 30,000 rupees  for the full year.

Please call me on 9371002943 for more details.

Indices  weekly levels

MY WEEKLY TAKE ......

WILL THE PRE-BUDGET RALLY FINALLY HAPPEN ? ? ?

Trading levels – 22^nd/ 26^th  February  2016

Two weeks ago, I had written of a large move happening and also said that 80 % chance that this move will be a DOWN move. It turned out to be prophetic and we had 600+ NIFTY points down move before bulls staged an intraday recovery. The low of 6869 was earlier seen around 15^th April -  full one month before  NAMO led victory was announced.

NO DOUBT THE FALL WAS IN LINE WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MARKETS BUT IT DISPROVED THE FOLLY OF INDIA BEING A BRIGHT SHINING STAR AMONGST OTHERWISE DULL EMERGING MARKETS.

Our markets were supported by a large inflow of funds coming into  EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS  / EQUITY LINKED INSURANCE SCHEMES till we slipped below the 7359 NIFTY level which was the closing on 26^th may 2014  - NAMO CORONATION day.

Wiping out of all NAMO premium was a RUDE shock to investing masses as most of their portfolios had started showing a negative return over the near two year period. Even though the large scale redemption pressure is still not visible, the Inflow has dwindled to a trickle and now can-not match the money being pulled out by FIIs. THIS HAS RESULTED INTO SHARP FALL OF 600 + POINTS IN A WEEK.

 We have seen some semblance of stability last week – again thanks to global cues – and IT LOOKS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE A 200/250 POINT PRE-BUDGET RALLY IN THE COMING WEEK – provided the global cues continue to be benign.

There is a talk of LONG TERM CAPITAL GAINS regime being tweaked. If that possibility strengthens and there are indications of increased fiscal deficit, we may see further selling before the budget as well, pulling the NIFTY even below the previous low of 6869.

Personally, I will be reducing my equity market commitment by about 20 % if there is strength in the market SINCE I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH POSITIVE FROM THE BUDGET. I am sure that this market will give me ample opportunities to get back into the market at lower levels.

I am suggesting a few stocks which u can buy  as downside risks are rather limited – ELECON / DHFL / AMARA RAJA / NBCC / IDFC BANK / RELIANCE / TATA MOTORS / MARUTI / BHARTI INFRATEL / PSU BANK BEES.  Looks like with about 8 to 10 % downside risk …. You may have 30/35 % upside in 24 months. Please study fundamentals yourself to be doubly sure.

As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado or blind  consensus following  does not help.  I HAVE JUST GIVEN YOU SOME FOOD FOR YOUR GREY CELLS.   WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?

FEBRUARY 2016 TRADING LEVELS ARE posted over the weekend   You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. Keep visiting  my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/. 

Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce  - even for Mr Buffet  and needs to be respected.

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.

Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.

I am available on yahoo messenger on most of the trading days and you can add me on your yahoo messenger. My yahoo id is madhavranade1

Keep watching my website www.sumamura.com closely for further inputs. You need to register and login to see modules section where all the levels for different timeframes are  shown.

You can view individual modules for as little as 3,000 rupees per year. A package for all  8  modules for  just 30,000 rupees  for the full year.

Please call me on 9371002943 for more details.

Indices  weekly levels