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NIFTY CATAPULTS PAST 8150  . . .

Trading levels – 30^th May  / 3^rd June   2016

After being ranged in 200 points for 25 trading sessions, NIFTY broke out on the back of some good results and bull cartel’s resolve to celebrate second anniversary of Modi’s coronation in a grand style. Since last May, the bulls have been generally on the back-foot and what better occasion than the second anniversary to come out all guns blazing  ! ! !

Both FIIs and DIIs have not been big buyers for last 3 sessions ….. but they have not sold any  NIFTY majors and THAT HELPS. It helps a long long way – it is WIN WIN  for both. Now they have got higher levels to exit – if they wish to exit while bulls have had their way as well.

Technically speaking, we have had a DEATH CROSS  - on weekly charts  - 50 WMA going below 100 WMA  - and that should cap the euphoria to some extent.  8328 can be first resistance for this move. Nothing much has changed fundamentally. PSU banks are going to sulk and private capital is not going to come out so soon. So it will all hinge on government spending  - like last many quarters and months.

I am pulling some money out and wait for an opportunity to re-deploy about 400/500 points lower. BANKNIFTY HAS STARTED WEEKLY OPTIONS and that gives punters another opportunity to  try their hand with even lesser capital.

As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado or blind  consensus following  does not help.  I HAVE JUST GIVEN YOU SOME FOOD FOR YOUR GREY CELLS.   WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?

JUNE 2016 TRADING LEVELS will be posted over the next weekend.   You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. Keep visiting  my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/. 

Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce  - even for Mr Buffet  and needs to be respected.

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.

Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.

I am available on yahoo messenger on most of the trading days and you can add me on your yahoo messenger. My yahoo id is madhavranade1

Keep watching my website www.sumamura.com closely for further inputs. You need to register and login to see modules section where all the levels for different timeframes are  shown.

You can view individual modules for as little as 3,000 rupees per year. A package for all  8  modules for  just 30,000 rupees  for the full year.

Please call me on 9371002943 for more details.

Indices  weekly levels

PORTFOLIO FOR 18/24 MONTHS  as on 29/5/2016

PL HAVE A LOOK AT SELECTION OF STOCKS WHICH U SHUD KEEP WATCHING. IF U CONSTRUCT  A PORTFOLIO OF ABOUT 11/12 STOCKS( CORE PORTFOLIO ) + 3/4 STOCKS ( TO ADD ALFA ), WE CAN REASONABLY GET 13/14 % CAGR RETURN  OVER 24 MONTHS.

While  it is not very difficult to select the stocks, the key to success is THE ENTRY LEVEL. These are clearly given against all the stocks. DON’T CHASE THE PRICE  .... it will affect  your CAGR return badly.

We have to show patience for making an entry. Market has run up 5 % last week. So stocks have become expensive. But it will correct in due course and you will get your entry.

WE MADE A PORTFOLIO IN JANUARY 2015 WHEN NIFTY WAS AT 8600+ . BUT BY STICKING TO ENTRY DISCIPLINE, WE FOUND THAT PORTFOLIO WAS MAKING MONEY IN FEB 2016 WHEN NIFTY WAS AT 7000.

THAT IS THE BEAUTY OF PICKING THE RIGHT ENTRY LEVEL. SOME ENTRY LEVELS MAY LOOK RIDICULOUS NOW .... BUT SO WERE THEY IN JAN 2015. We may take 6 months to invest .... but that does not matter. We may not be able to buy some stocks at all .... but that also does not matter. SINCE, WE MUST BUY AT THE RIGHT PRICE.

The cash u have in your portfolio can be parked in good liquid funds which are giving you about 9 % annual returns.

CORE PORTFOLIO – 85/90 % INVESTMENT

1... hero moto .....   enter around 2700/2750 if monsoon is good / enter only around 2400/2450 if monsoon is not good ......

2... larsen ..... enter around 1350/1375

3...  reliance  - can enter between 930/940 upto 1000

4 .... infosys ..... enter around 1100 ( if rupee remains at 67/68 )  / enter around 1000/1025 ( if rupee moves up to 63/64 )

5... TCS ....  enter around 2400 ( if rupee remains at 67/68 )  / enter around 2200/2250 ( if rupee moves up to 63/64 )

6... hdfc ..... enter around 1160/75 ( if insurance IPO is coming ) / enter around 1050/75 ( if no insurance IPO )

7... hdfc bank  ... enter around 1025/1050 ... u wl hv to be really patient ...

8... axis bank .... enter around 440/450

9... icici bank ... enter between 200/220

10.... bajaj finance ...enter between 5500/6000 .... u wl need to be patient

11... ashok leyland .... enter between 75 / 80 ....

12... maruti .... can enter 50 % around 3700 and balance 50 % around 3300/3400

13 .... M&M ..... enter around 1175/1200

14... bosch ... enter around 15000

15... eicher motors .... enter around 16500/17000

16... asian paints .... enter around 850/870

17... state bank .....  buy 50 % around 180/85 and balance around 150/55

18... kotak bank .... enter around 650/670

19... sun pharma .... spread out yr buying from 700  to 825

20... page industries – enter 50 % around 11000/11500 / balance 50 % around 10000

21... emami ..... buy 50 % now and balance around 900/925

22... glaxo – consumer .... buy around 5600/5800

23... colgate  .... buy between 800/850

24... voltas ..... enter around 270/290

25... cummins .....  buy 50 % around 750 and 50 % around 650/675

26... CUB ..... buy 50 % around 95 and balance around 80

27... engineers india ... enter now around 180

28... CONCOR .... buy 50 % now around 1380 and balance around 1150/1200

29... sundram finance ... buy  50 % around 1300  and balance around 1225/1250

30... NBCC ... enter 50 % around 900 and balance around 750/800

31... ITC .... enter around 320/325

32... HUL .... enter around 775

33... BPCL .... enter between 850/875

34... tata motors .... buy 50 % around 380 and balance around 330/340

35... dewan housing .... enter between 180/200

FOLLOWING STOCKS SHUD BE CONSIDERED TO ADD ALFA – 10/15 % INVESTMENT 

1... IPCA  ... buy between 400/450

2... CIPLA ..... buy around 430/450

3... bharat electronics .... buy around 1100/1125

4... aurobindo pharma .... buy 50 % around  750 and balance around 600/620

5... capital first .....  buy between 450/500

6... PTC india financials ... buy between 30/33 ....

7... sterlite tecnologies ... buy between 75/85

8... bharat forge ..... buy around 700/725

9... reliance infra ..... buy between 450/480

10... eveready .... buy around 210/220

PORTFOLIO FOR 18/24 MONTHS as on 29/5/2016

PL HAVE A LOOK AT SELECTION OF STOCKS WHICH U SHUD KEEP WATCHING. IF U CONSTRUCT  A PORTFOLIO OF ABOUT 11/12 STOCKS( CORE PORTFOLIO ) + 3/4 STOCKS ( TO ADD ALFA ), WE CAN REASONABLY GET 13/14 % CAGR RETURN  OVER 24 MONTHS.

While  it is not very difficult to select the stocks, the key to success is THE ENTRY LEVEL. These are clearly given against all the stocks. DON’T CHASE THE PRICE  .... it will affect  your CAGR return badly.

We have to show patience for making an entry. Market has run up 5 % last week. So stocks have become expensive. But it will correct in due course and you will get your entry.

WE MADE A PORTFOLIO IN JANUARY 2015 WHEN NIFTY WAS AT 8600+ . BUT BY STICKING TO ENTRY DISCIPLINE, WE FOUND THAT PORTFOLIO WAS MAKING MONEY IN FEB 2016 WHEN NIFTY WAS AT 7000.

THAT IS THE BEAUTY OF PICKING THE RIGHT ENTRY LEVEL. SOME ENTRY LEVELS MAY LOOK RIDICULOUS NOW .... BUT SO WERE THEY IN JAN 2015. We may take 6 months to invest .... but that does not matter. We may not be able to buy some stocks at all .... but that also does not matter. SINCE, WE MUST BUY AT THE RIGHT PRICE.

The cash u have in your portfolio can be parked in good liquid funds which are giving you about 9 % annual returns.

CORE PORTFOLIO – 85/90 % INVESTMENT

1... hero moto .....   enter around 2700/2750 if monsoon is good / enter only around 2400/2450 if monsoon is not good ......

2... larsen ..... enter around 1350/1375

3...  reliance  - can enter between 930/940 upto 1000

4 .... infosys ..... enter around 1100 ( if rupee remains at 67/68 )  / enter around 1000/1025 ( if rupee moves up to 63/64 )

5... TCS ....  enter around 2400 ( if rupee remains at 67/68 )  / enter around 2200/2250 ( if rupee moves up to 63/64 )

6... hdfc ..... enter around 1160/75 ( if insurance IPO is coming ) / enter around 1050/75 ( if no insurance IPO )

7... hdfc bank  ... enter around 1025/1050 ... u wl hv to be really patient ...

8... axis bank .... enter around 440/450

9... icici bank ... enter between 200/220

10.... bajaj finance ...enter between 5500/6000 .... u wl need to be patient

11... ashok leyland .... enter between 75 / 80 ....

12... maruti .... can enter 50 % around 3700 and balance 50 % around 3300/3400

13 .... M&M ..... enter around 1175/1200

14... bosch ... enter around 15000

15... eicher motors .... enter around 16500/17000

16... asian paints .... enter around 850/870

17... state bank .....  buy 50 % around 180/85 and balance around 150/55

18... kotak bank .... enter around 650/670

19... sun pharma .... spread out yr buying from 700  to 825

20... page industries – enter 50 % around 11000/11500 / balance 50 % around 10000

21... emami ..... buy 50 % now and balance around 900/925

22... glaxo – consumer .... buy around 5600/5800

23... colgate  .... buy between 800/850

24... voltas ..... enter around 270/290

25... cummins .....  buy 50 % around 750 and 50 % around 650/675

26... CUB ..... buy 50 % around 95 and balance around 80

27... engineers india ... enter now around 180

28... CONCOR .... buy 50 % now around 1380 and balance around 1150/1200

29... sundram finance ... buy  50 % around 1300  and balance around 1225/1250

30... NBCC ... enter 50 % around 900 and balance around 750/800

31... ITC .... enter around 320/325

32... HUL .... enter around 775

33... BPCL .... enter between 850/875

34... tata motors .... buy 50 % around 380 and balance around 330/340

35... dewan housing .... enter between 180/200

FOLLOWING STOCKS SHUD BE CONSIDERED TO ADD ALFA – 10/15 % INVESTMENT 

1... IPCA  ... buy between 400/450

2... CIPLA ..... buy around 430/450

3... bharat electronics .... buy around 1100/1125

4... aurobindo pharma .... buy 50 % around  750 and balance around 600/620

5... capital first .....  buy between 450/500

6... PTC india financials ... buy between 30/33 ....

7... sterlite tecnologies ... buy between 75/85

8... bharat forge ..... buy around 700/725

9... reliance infra ..... buy between 450/480

10... eveready .... buy around 210/220