Messages

 MY WEEKLY TAKE

COVID SCARE RESURFACES IN USA IN A BIG WAY –

WILL THE WORLD MARKETS SHIVER ? ? ?

Trading  levels  29^th June / 3^rd July   2020

As I wrote last time – RELIANCE can no more be treated as a STOCK. It deserves the treatment like a SECTORAL INDEX.

The meteoric rise in share price of RELIANCE has put onus on the company to PERFORM. Otherwise this valuation will come off in 2 weeks while it has taken 3 months to go to this price level.  

ONLY PERFORMANCE OF JIO AS A TELECOM COMPANY WILL NOT SUFFICE.  THIS PRICE OF 1700+ ALREADY DISCOUNTS THE SUCCESSFUL ROLLOUT OF JIOMART WITH PARTICIPATION OF MILLIONS OF SMALL KIRANA RETAILERS.

WILL ALL THAT HAPPEN WITH IN A REASONABLE PERIOD OF 9 TO 12 MONTHS IS A MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION.

We need a roll out on piliot basis atleast in one metro by end of the year 2020. That is minimum to hold and support this price level of 1700+.

Currently NIFTY is not going anywhere as the main driver so far was RELIANCE has stopped making big moves. Even then, the bull operators are craftily using the stock to jack up NIFTY level  as and when it starts sinking.

MY CONTENTION IS THAT EVEN DOW FUTURES ARE MANAGED /  MANIPULATED SO THAT THEY WILL RISE BETWEEN 2 TO 3.30 PM.  I HAVE SEEN ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS, THAT IN THE FOLLOWING 2 HRS,  DOW FUTURES GO BACK TO THE LOWER LEVEL PREVAILING AROUND 1.30 / 2 PM.

There are  lot of games being played in a very subtle manner to keep NIFTY around 10,000 level. However, I can see disturbing divergences on daily charts , which indicate a 400/600 point fall in not too far distant future. 

SIMILAR DIVERGENCE IS ARE ALSO VISIBLE ON MIDCAP 100 DAILY CHART.  THIS MEANS, WHEN NIFTY TAKES A KNOCK, THIS TIME MIDCAPS MAY  TAKE A BIGGER KNOCK.

 With a very weak trading session on Friday in American markets, this  promises a very interesting trading week.  Let us see how it goes.

I have a facebook group SHARE MARKET WEEKLY VIEW.  If you wish you may join that group – IT IS FREE - where I have put up some recommended  entry prices for 60 odd good quality stocks.

As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado or blind consensus following  does not help.  I HAVE JUST GIVEN YOU SOME FOOD FOR YOUR GREY CELLS.   WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?

COVID RELAPSE FEAR GRIPS US BOURSES – LETS WAIT FOR REFLECTION ON NIFTY . . .

Trading  levels  15^th / 19^th   June  2020

Till last Friday, NIFTY was galloping but come Monday,  it started  trotting.  Reason – the US markets caught a chill .

On Wednesday evening the FED announced its credit policy assuring that the ZERO interest rate regime will last till 2022.

ON THE FACE OF IT – IT LOOKS GOOD NEWS FOR EQUITY .  BUT , THE UNDERLYING MESSAGE WAS VERY UN-NERVING. THE GOVERNOR  DID NOT SEE  ANY HOPE  FOR  RECOVERY TILL  END 2021.

When the message ultimately sank in , the DOW futures simply collapsed and the following trading session  saw a cut of 1800 + points from previous close.

INDIAN MARKETS OPENED WEAK BUT INSPITE OF JUST A MINOR RECOVERY IN DOW FUTURES, GAVE A POSITIVE CLOSE -  UP  NEARLY 5 % FROM DAYS LOW.   May be marketmen  were  hoping  for  similar upmove in US markets as well.   BUT THAT DID NOT MATERIALISE.

DOW chart has indicated an  ISLAND REVERSAL and most likely we will have further weakness in the coming week  testing levels of 24500/700  –  1000   points lower than Friday close.

On Monday, we will start  weak and 9650/9720  is a very sacrosanct  zone for me. If that is broken, we are bound to see the test of Friday’s low. Next is 9334-9336 gap left on 28^th may.

That would be below 61.2 % retracement of current bull move. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW  IT PLAYS OUT.

WHAT DID I WRITE LAST WEEK ? This NIFTY rally is now looking stretched as we are going further and further away from stark reality.

I THINK TIME TO DEPLOY SOME CASH ON HAND IS JUST ROUND THE CORNER BUT BE VERY SELECTIVE IN  CHOOSING THE STOCKS TO BUY. This will not be the last occasion and we may have -  may be two more  opportunities  till  the  dust finally settles down.

I  HAVE ENSURED I  HAVE ENOUGH CASH ON HAND – I WILL DEPLOY SOME BUT ALSO KEEP SOME POWDER DRY  WHEN MARKET WILL TURN BEARISH AGAIN AFTER JUNE QUARTER RESULTS.  Cash in hand never hurts anyone in these turbulent times.

All along I am only buying stocks with strong balance sheets and very low debt equity ratio.

I have a facebook group SHARE MARKET WEEKLY VIEW.  If you wish you may join that group – IT IS FREE - where I have put up some recommended  entry prices for 60 odd good quality stocks.

As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado or blind consensus following  does not help.  I HAVE JUST GIVEN YOU SOME FOOD FOR YOUR GREY CELLS.   WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?

JUNE   2020 TRADING LEVELS  are  posted . You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. Keep visiting my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/. 

Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce  - even for Mr Buffet  and needs to be respected.

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.

Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.

Keep watching my website www.sumamura.com closely for further inputs. You need to register and login to see modules section where all the levels for different timeframes are  shown.

You can view individual modules for as little as 3,000 rupees per year. A package for all  8  modules for  just 30,000 rupees  for the full year.

Please ping me on 9371002943 on WHATSAPP for any queries.  Please identify yourself clearly.

Indices  monthly levels

 MY WEEKLY TAKE 

NIFTY GALLOPS AS IF NO

TOMORROW THROWING POOR

MACROS TO THE WIND . . .

Trading  levels  8^th / 12^th  June  2020

Nifty  has gone up in last 7 of the 8 trading sessions notching 1200+ point gain in the bargain  at the average of 160+ points on every up day.   In the meanwhile DJI has gone up 8 out of 9 trading sessions moving up 2500+ points – average of 300+ points.

THIS IS BREATH-TAKING RALLY … ALAS, IF IT WAS TO COME BECAUSE OF GREAT MACROS ….  Either Indian or US ….  Unfortunately that is not to be.

THIS IS NOW SHOWING FIRM CO-RELATION BETWEEN THE TWO  MARKETS WHICH WAS DISTURBED 3 WEEKS AGO.

This NIFTY rally is now looking stretched as we are going further and further away from stark reality. But – one never knows as strange things have happened due to  the gush of liquidity.

I  WILL SAY RALLY LOOKS SAFE AS LONG AS NIFTY DOES  NOT CLOSE BELOW  9900.

Some interesting developments  in telecom industry  are also indicated. 

1… GOOGLE WILL TAKE STAKE IN VODA – IDEA.

2… AMAZON WILL PUMP IN 2 BILLION DOLLARS IN BHARTI AIRTEL.

This means Indian market will be abuzz with lot of activity in coming 3/6 months particularly in organized retail sector.  IT WILL BE FUN AND AGAIN CUSTOMER WILL BE THE KING.

I am selling the stocks which I have bought around 8000 / 8500 nifty level in March and  some bought around 9000  2 weeks ago.

I  AM ENSURING I  WILL HAVE ENOUGH CASH ON HAND WHEN MARKET WILL TURN BEARISH AGAIN AFTER JUNE QUARTER RESULTS.  Cash in hand never hurts anyone in these turbulent times.

All along I am only buying stocks with strong balance sheets and very low debt equity ratio.

I have a facebook group SHARE MARKET WEEKLY VIEW.  If you wish you may join that group – IT IS FREE - where I have put up some recommended  entry prices for 60 odd good quality stocks.

As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado or blind consensus following  does not help.  I HAVE JUST GIVEN YOU SOME FOOD FOR YOUR GREY CELLS.   WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?

JUNE   2020 TRADING LEVELS  are  posted . You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. Keep visiting my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/. 

Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce  - even for Mr Buffet  and needs to be respected.

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.

Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.

Keep watching my website www.sumamura.com closely for further inputs. You need to register and login to see modules section where all the levels for different timeframes are  shown.

You can view individual modules for as little as 3,000 rupees per year. A package for all  8  modules for  just 30,000 rupees  for the full year.

Please ping me on 9371002943 on WHATSAPP for any queries.  Please identify yourself clearly.

Indices  monthly levels