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tata motors ...... the stock has hit our long intra target of 1220 and then it has reacted ...... u must hv seen the domestic stand alone results ... which r DISMAL ...... with the sword of dtimulus removal hanging on its head ... the whole auto sector is going to underperform in the next 2 weeks and tata motors is not going to be an exception ...... base effect is also going to catch-up and this wl get accentuated with the pressure of higher interest rates ...... overall the picture is going to be rather gloomy locally .... as far as JLR is concerned .... tata management itself has cautioned that this qtrs results r specifically good due to cross currency exchange rates movement which was favourable ... it may not be always like that ... the exchange rates may not be always favourable .... and just a 3 % adverse movement of exchange rate ... which is entirely possible .... can wipe out 25 % JLR profits .... amounting to entire domestic profits ....... moreover it looks like that JLR is performing at its peak .... more or less .... hence the chances are 60/70 % that it will slip in the coming quarters rather than only 10 % chance that it will improve its performance further ..... also note that jaguar has sold lesser no of cars in 2010 than in 2009 ... and overall volumes is up only because of land rover ..... which has much lesser per piece contribution to bottom line ..... keeping all this in mind ..... i am not really very bullish inspite of my annual eps target of around 150 my annual eps target is 150 which is higher than most brokerages ...... since i refuse to give a high P/E multiple to such highly leveraged and skewed composition of EPS ...... to me , it looks the stock is fully priced around 1200 ... and the downside risks are much higher to warrant an "investment" at this level ...... investment call will hv to be taken at significantly lower level ..... to reduce downside risk significantly ..... i hope u agree to this hypothesis .... ...... yr comments are welcome ......

STOCKS WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BOTTOMED OUT - RELIANCE / ACC / LT / HDFC / ICICI /ST BANK / AXIS BANK / BAJAJ AUTO / JSW STEEL / WIPRO / IDFC / GMR THESE STOCKS COULD BE BOUGHT FOR 5 TO 7 % SHORT TERM GAIN OVER 2/3 TRADING SESSIONS.

LT .....it was being supported strongly around 2000 ... with LT finance IPO consideration .... now IPO is being deferred indefinitely ... so that support is gone ...... all infra cos are facing a triple whammy - 1 .... commodity inflation 2.... interest rates r going up 3.... uncertainty leading to future orders / implementation of existing projects with these problems ... the sector is going to be an underperformer .... and LT is facing the brunt ...... the results were also just about OK to GOOD ...... and valuations r steep compared to other infra peers ...... now that valuation gap is getting reduced ...... personally i feel ... 1500/1650 is a good long term investment buying zone ...... buy gradually ..... if LT slips below 1500 - all bets on INDIAN market will be off

message on yahoo messenger before IIP nos --- IIP nos ...... it is more or less certain that we r going to see degrowth on MOM basis .... and it wl not be taken kindly ....... sept and march are special months .... so apr / oct .... mom degrowth is given and acceptable ..... but not in other months ....... that is why i wrote yesterday .... that RBI will be in a dilemma .... but politics now warrants a rate increase ....... and we will have one ......

comments after IIP nos were announced --- IIP NOs ..... i was commenting about MOM degrowth .... and it has come about 4.5 % degrowth ...... absolutely not acceptable ..... i was looking at about 2 % degrowth ....... cap goods is in line but still virtually no growth on MOM basis ........ consumer durables ... degrowth of about 18 % MOM basis .... and diwali was in NOVEMBER ... i dont know why many on the channels r saying OCT was a festive month .... may be it was for bengal... thats all ... for rest of india ... it was NOV .... for sure ..... but that bubble had to burst ... some time and it did ...... degrowth in intermediate goods .... means it will affect dec nos as well ...... it may also indicate destocking of inventories by OEMs ...... when will OEM destock ... intermediate goods ... when he does not see a strong flow of orders in near future ...... so it implies that dec also may not be very good ....... last dec was a huge jump on MOM basis .... that means we hv to hv 10 % .... repeat 10 % MOM growth for dec 2011 IIP nos to be positive ....... it is very uphill task ......... keep that in mind .....

TATA MOTORS - my bearish stand about the stock is well known and i have made the reasons also obvious on several occasions ...... finally KARVY has seen some logic in what i hv been saying for sometime .... and given a SELL call ....... i know .... for sure ...... many more will follow in due time ........ remember ... DREAMS DONT LAST FOR EVER and what remains the next morning is BLANK SCREEN .