Messages

Thursday, February 16 2012
10:06 AM

POWER SECTOR / COAL INDIA ......

how many of u really believe that all problems wl get sorted out with PMO directive ..... the coal wl not come thru .... since it has to be physically taken out from mines ...
and that is not easy like raising a few towers and adding millions of subscribers .....

what this directive wl do is grind coal india valuation to dust ..... as they hv to pay difference between commited coal and the shortfall .......

JUST SELL SELL SELL COAL INDIA ........

as regrds to power cos .... nothing changes except sentiment .... in the short term ... they may get some financing as they wl hv some agreements with coal india to show ... and the infra cos wl get some stuck orders .....

i think infra cos are bigger beneficiaries than the power producers ........


 


10:12 AM

STEEL / CEMENT SECTOR WL FACE COAL SHORTAGE ........

if coal india has to supply 80 % requirements of power sector .... THEY WILL STARVE STEEL / CEMENT .... so ... they wl hv to import coal ....

effect .... huge jump in COSTS .... means hit on margins .....

so what is NECTAR to one sector is POISON for other two ........

see if u can agree with me ... and take yr positions accordingly ....

cheersssssssssss ........


Tuesday, January 24 2012
10:01 AM

MARUTI .....

 

this yr FY 12 ..... maruti may give EPS of 45/47 .... max

 

next yr it may give somewhere around 65 .... if everything goes well .....

 

that means current price is discounting FY 13 eps at about 17 times ..... and that too with lots of ifs and buts about 65 rs eps ....... as rupee devaluation may not go away soon and all related problems like royalty in yen / raw matls in yen wl continue ........

 

i dont think a few hundred rs cut that may happen in EMI due to reduced interest rate is a big positive .... SINCE INCREASE WAS NOT A BIG NEGATIVE EITHER .......

 

so just decide if u r comfortable at these valuations and THEN ONLY INVEST ......

 

i think a price level between 1000/1050 gives some cushion for investors ........


Saturday, January 21 2012
02:17 PM

two days ago most CEOs of power cos met the PM for resolution of their problems. this includes the likes of ratan tata / anil ambani  also.

pl read article  ( link given below) which explains what games even the biggies have played to bag UMPP contracts  and are crying foul now.

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/should-power-firms-be-bailed-out/901680/0

pl circulate this article to whomever possible. THIS WAY U WL BE DOING SOME GOOD DEED TO GENERAL PUBLIC.

regards --- ranade


Wednesday, January 4 2012
03:38 PM

 

IFCI ....

some days ago i had said that i wl rather find a better stock to lose money .....

 

on expiry day ... stock crashed nearly 20 % in 40 mins .....

who wants to play such russian roulettes when fundamentally there is nothing ... absolutely nothing .... in the stock .......

 

i believe in trading stocks with some organisations  / some management / some credibility behind them ....

 

there is no point in trading SYMBOLS .... like IFCI ........

 

i hope u get my point ..... that is what i mean by a better stock .......


Sunday, January 1 2012
11:15 AM

 

FORECAST FOR CY 2012
 
gold ..... two weekly closes below 1492 dollars will put a lot of pressure on this commodity with eventual targets of 1395 /1300/1205/1110.
trading above 1492 will keep alive possibilities of upmove towards 1675 / 1770 / 1865 /1960.
 
silver ..... 29.1 to 32.2 is neutral zone. two weekly closes above 32.2 will open possibility of targets 35/37.8 / 40.6/ 43.4
price is currently likely to be under pressure till it gives two weekly closes above 29.1. possible downside targets of 27.2 (current price ) / 25.3/23.4/21.5/19.6/17.7
 
nymex crude – trade with negative bias till two weekly closes above 107. current price is 98.83. lower side targets are 95/91/87/83/79/75/71/67
above 107 .... upmove can face significant resistence at 115 and 123 ...... above 123 we can look at clear skies with targets of 128/139/150
 
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 
DJI .... two weekly closes below 11,500 will open floodgates for 11300/100/10900/700/500/300/100/9900/700. currently at 12217 has potential to move to 12270/470/670/870/13070/270/470/670.
avoid taking long term posns between 11500/12070. trade break-outs with two weekly closes below and above 11500 and 12070 respectively.
 
S&P 500 .... two weekly closes below 1200 will open floodgates for 1160/20/1080/40/100/960. currently at 1257 has potential ( after clearing minor resistance at 1268 ) to move to 1312/56/1400/1444/88.
avoid taking long term posns between 1200/1268. trade break-outs with two weekly closes below and above 1200 and 1268 respectively.
 
FTSE100 .... 5325 seems to be an important break-out level. currently is 5572 will face significant resistance at 5860 beyond whichit has potential to rise to 5930/6000/6070/140/210/280/350/420.
two weekly closes below 5325 can signal significant downside to 5270/200/130/060/4990/20/850/780/710/640/570/500.