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US intra levels - for 7th june 2012

US intra levels - 6th june 2012 .....

US intra levels for 5th june 2012 ....

Trading levels 4^th / 8^th June 2012

IF TOO BIG TO FAIL was the maxim in 2008/09 … during the Lehman crisis ….. now the new maxim is TOO BIG TO SAVE …….. While we are just getting used to a possibility of GREXIT …. Greek Exit … the next euro-zone problem is snowballing ….. SPAIN.

Spain is simply too big to save. Greek economy is just about 230 billion Euros and even if the parties which don’t want to honour bail-out treaties - signed 4 months ago - come to power, they could be possibly silenced by giving additional package of 10 % - 23 billion Euros.

But Spain is simply too big … Germany will have to accept downgrading by rating agencies in trying to save Euro-zone and then in that case, Germany is bound to decide to exit Eurozone and that will be epitaph for the combined euro-zone dream.

What will follow in the world including euro-zone will be economic mayhem and the situation will be akin to great depression in 1930s … LET US HOIPE ALL WILL NOT UNFOLD THE WAY I HAVE DESCRIBED ……

It will not happen overnight and may take even up to 12 to 18 months … but it is better to be forewarned about such a doomsday scenario.

On Monday, we will have a retest of 4770 / 4780 zone …. And it is very crucial to watch whether that support holds or gives way … I will put 70 % chance for nifty going thru that level and then staring at December lows.

The world markets have simply caved in on Friday and that may mean a small bounce on either Monday or Tuesday. But basically the fabric has become very weak and the chances of going down further are 80 % against the 20 % for recovery.

Rupee showed a modest recovery on Friday …. But if we slip below 56.5 on daily closing basis …. Then we have 58 and 59.7 coming rather quickly. It is possible that simultaneously, we may hit December lows on NIFTY as well.

US intra levels ... for 4th june 2012

monthly trading levels for june 2012 .... FOR SNO 500 ......

Trading levels 28th May / 1^st June 2012

In the last two weeks ( I did not write last week ) , we broke thru not only 4900 but even 4800 – although briefly. Luckily … the 4770/4780 support – which is not really a strong one ….. did hold and we were saved from testing December lows.

As expected the world markets have turned gloomy and they are casting dark shadows on our markets. The uncertainty will definitely remain till Greek re-vote on 17^th June and we can then take a fresh look depending on the outcome.

Keep one thing in mind …. Greece … however small its economy …. will definitely cause much bigger strife in world economy than Lehman did … so be prepared for that and it is not going to be easy to ring-fence the trauma … as virtually every large world bank / economy will have exposure in some way.

Rupee simply collapsed last week hitting a low of 56.38 and the reverberation could be heard on Dalal Street. In real terms … We just have about 7 months foreign exchange reserves to meet our ever ballooning import bill and it is time to look at some tough exchange control measures.

I HOPE YOU HAVE ALREADY STARTED CHERRY PICKING THE STOCKS OF YOUR CHOICE AS VALUATIONS ARE TURNING ATTRACTIVE. Infact some valuations are still mouth watering .

US intra trading levels .... 1st june 2012