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Trading levels 16th / 20th July 2012


Euphoria of Euro summit outcome waned last week and most markets slid on first 4 days. On Friday … American markets found cheer in China GDP data which was just about OK but atleast no major slippage. European markets took the cue in second half and rallied making up for losses in first 4 days.

This means that Asia will have good opening on Monday and same with our market also.

I don’t expect much follow-up action after the initial one hour on Monday and we may again struggle to cross 5300 on nifty.

Our PM … who is also interim FM … seems to be diluting most measures of Pranabda … like GAAR and VODAPHONE. He is in the habit of appointing committees and avoiding any major decisions by himself. Now we have one more for GAAR.

Deliverance of all his promises are carefully watched by the market and he has just about 6 weeks time for that. If he does not, market will slide below 5,000 again.

I don’t recommend adding any fresh longs on Monday after the gap-up opening. Stay out and play for presidential election to be over before taking any serious positions.

I hope u have booked profit last week …. If not … you will get another opportunity on Monday … don’t miss it.                   

Trading levels 9th / 13th July 2012



Last Friday – last day of June quarter as well …. Was a big big upday for all world markets and our market was no different. Euro summit sprang a surprise with Madam Merkel backing off from her hawkish stance. We broke out of 5050 / 5200 range and made a dash for 5300.

Last whole week we kept on consolidating but always with a positive bias ending the week 40 odd points higher. This meant that now we have had 5 consecutive up weeks.

PM has taken over as interim FM and he is behaving as if earlier govt was not his govt. He is trying to show off with some big bold announcements and we need to see actual action in the coming weeks. This coincided with a bit of strength in Euro as well and the rupee also moved up by about 4 odd percent in 4 days. But that strength has since vanished and we should be crossing 56 again in the coming week.


We should be opening weak on Monday – on the back of Fridays weakness in US markets in the face of disappointing job report. If we manage to sustain above 29th June high … this rally can still continue. Otherwise we will see a gradual decline in line with global markets.

We need to book profit on many popular midcaps – momentum stocks – on Monday morning itself as they can easily correct 10/15 % if market corrects 2/3 %.                   

US intra levels - 28th june 2012

US intra levels - 27th june 2012

my weekly take which was printed in a weekly on sat 23rd june .....

Trading levels 25th / 29th June 2012



Last Monday was a big down day …. erasing most of previous Fridays gains. The Greek election results were favourable – the leftist, anti austerity party lost ……. But RBI sprung a surprise maintaining status quo on REPO as well as CRR rates.

The next three days Nifty clawed back but Thursday’s big downtick on US markets meant that we had a big gap-down on Friday. Nevertheless, market moved up again showing extreme resilience and closed marginally up on weekly basis.

This meant we had third weekly positive closing in a row.

Sliding Rupee is the biggest concern now and apparently RBI has no solution as well as will to stop the slide. We have closed below 57 and we might as well see 58 level taken out in the coming week.

We should be opening strong on Monday – on the back of Fridays show of strength in US markets in the face of Moody downgrades. If we manage to close above last Mondays high of 5190…. there is a case for further up-move up to 5280.

Many fundamentally sound stocks are still available at reasonable valuations and should be bought for some quick gains if Monday gives indication of closing above 5190.                   

US intra levels - 26th june 2012