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IF ROMNEY WINS ......
yesterday i read one article .......
i am just reproducing a para .... read carefully .....
If Romney becomes President, the US Fed Chairman Mr Bernanke would be thrown out. And chances are that he would be replaced by monetary economist John Taylor.
It is worth noting that this gentleman has been a strong opponent of quantitative easing (QE). Let's fit all the pieces together and we get an insightful picture. The US central bank's reckless monetary policies have flooded cheap money into the system. It is this easy money coupled with near-zero interest rates that have artificially pumped up the stock markets. Otherwise, why would markets rise despite weakening earning prospects? So now, what could happen if the US Fed is chaired by a hawkish monetary economist?
if bernanke is removed ..... our markets wl crash 500 ... repeat 500 nifty points in next 2/3 weeks ........
QE III wl be over and interest rates in US wl become more reallistic .... NO MORE EASY MONEY .......
even gold will go below 1500 dollars ... close rto 1250/1300 .......
keep this scenario at the back of yr mind .... EVENT IS JUST 4 WEEKS AWAY ........
Trading levels 8th / 12th October 2012
Last week I was away so could not post.we had a SUPER THURSDAY event on 4th October. Media went ga-ga over it but I was not so much enamoured and called for profit booking on Thursday itself.
Most analysts are putting cart ahead of horse and it never works that way.
What government has done in last 4 weeks is the announcement of intent --- apart from FDI in retail - which does not need legislative approval. Everything else has to be cleared by parliament …. In fact both houses of the parliament. I don’t think this government will not even put to vote any of the bills during winter session – under some pretext or the other.
I get a feeling that there is a cold war between congress party and the government – between Sonia and Manmohan - and at the moment PM seems to be winning. He is supported by colleagues like Chiddu / Kamalnath / Anand Sharma et al while the old guard like Jayram Ramesh and a few others are on the side of Sonia. But Sonia camp will get even sooner than later.
It seems any further market rally will be only on the back of strong FII flows. The day that gush stops we will be sliding down again.
One thing is clear --- the Pm has given carte blanche to FM … to announce what it takes to shore up the market and till now he has come out with guns blazing … so much so that he has even indirectly hinted RBI what to do in the coming policy meet.
World markets are also losing upward momentum and lot depends of result season in US as well as at home. I will be extremely wary of taking further long positions till we have a clear break-out again.
Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.
I am available on yahoo messenger on most of the trading days and you can add me on your yahoo messenger. My yahoo id is madhavranade1
Trading levels 17th / 21st September 2012
The past week was very eventful … and every throw of dice was in the bull’s favour ….. and it all started on Thursday afternoon …. First the German constitutional court gave a favourable verdict … few hours later the government decided to bite the bullet by increasing diesel price and restricting the no subsidized LPG cylinders per household …. And later in the night, FED came out with a blazing BAZOOKA …which paled Mr Draghi.
All world markets roared in unison on Thursday late evening / Friday. As if this was not enough… Govt again dared the TMC / SP / BSP to pull down the govt when they announced FDI in retail / aviation / broadcasting on Friday evening …..
The backdrop was Supreme court ruling on Friday afternoon asking for a review of all coal block allocations … this really cornered the govt and it was clear that PM’s position had become untenable. SO HE HAS DECIDED TO GO DOWN FIGHTING …. Congress party is hoping that the allies will pull down the government and the PM will become a MARTYR.
THIS WAY THEY HAVE REALLY PREEMPTED BJP / SP / BSP AND TMC … ALL IN ONE GO …..
On Monday … we should open about 50/60 points higher and that may be a good point to cut your longs and wait for political drama to unfold.
Any further up-move will depend upon how SP / TMC play their cards. If they pull their punches, market will fly further up if there is strong FII buying.
I have bought 5000 Dec put around 115 as I want to give time for things to unfold. That risk is worth taking as risk reward will be simply great.
I can assure you that coming week is going to be very exciting for our market … thanks to drama in political arena.
Trading levels 10th / 14th September 2012 ....
Mr Draghi did fulfill market expectations …. Partially. He did not go the full distance ( did not cut interest rate ) under pressure from Germany. I believe that was prudent since Germany goes for elections in near future and Madam Merkel returning to power is of paramount importance for subsistence of EUROZONE.
There are still a few niggling issues like German constitutional court matter but if they get sorted out by next weekend, the European issues can be forgotten for next 2/3 months atleast.
As predicted the global markets and our market as well has bounced about 2 % and next week becomes very crucial for continuance of the rally.
For Indian markets, FED QE III is more important as that will push major money towards the Emerging Markets. Our rally beyond 5,000 is entirely liquidity driven as our macros are nothing to write home about.
AUSTALIAN markets have also dipped and now only NASDAQ is standing tall – thanks to super strength shown by APPLE.
On Monday we should have a sideways session – that is minimum expectation. If we surrender Friday’s gains, it will not augur well for the continuance of the rally in our market – irrespective of what happens to world markets.
Our PM has again shown his feet of clay … by deferring even the notional diesel price increase.
I would prefer a wait and watch approach for next few days before market shows a confirmed trend to move up beyond 5400.