June 2020

COVID RELAPSE FEAR GRIPS US BOURSES – LETS WAIT FOR REFLECTION ON NIFTY . . .

Trading  levels  15^th / 19^th   June  2020

Till last Friday, NIFTY was galloping but come Monday,  it started  trotting.  Reason – the US markets caught a chill .

On Wednesday evening the FED announced its credit policy assuring that the ZERO interest rate regime will last till 2022.

ON THE FACE OF IT – IT LOOKS GOOD NEWS FOR EQUITY .  BUT , THE UNDERLYING MESSAGE WAS VERY UN-NERVING. THE GOVERNOR  DID NOT SEE  ANY HOPE  FOR  RECOVERY TILL  END 2021.

When the message ultimately sank in , the DOW futures simply collapsed and the following trading session  saw a cut of 1800 + points from previous close.

INDIAN MARKETS OPENED WEAK BUT INSPITE OF JUST A MINOR RECOVERY IN DOW FUTURES, GAVE A POSITIVE CLOSE -  UP  NEARLY 5 % FROM DAYS LOW.   May be marketmen  were  hoping  for  similar upmove in US markets as well.   BUT THAT DID NOT MATERIALISE.

DOW chart has indicated an  ISLAND REVERSAL and most likely we will have further weakness in the coming week  testing levels of 24500/700  –  1000   points lower than Friday close.

On Monday, we will start  weak and 9650/9720  is a very sacrosanct  zone for me. If that is broken, we are bound to see the test of Friday’s low. Next is 9334-9336 gap left on 28^th may.

That would be below 61.2 % retracement of current bull move. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW  IT PLAYS OUT.

WHAT DID I WRITE LAST WEEK ? This NIFTY rally is now looking stretched as we are going further and further away from stark reality.

I THINK TIME TO DEPLOY SOME CASH ON HAND IS JUST ROUND THE CORNER BUT BE VERY SELECTIVE IN  CHOOSING THE STOCKS TO BUY. This will not be the last occasion and we may have -  may be two more  opportunities  till  the  dust finally settles down.

I  HAVE ENSURED I  HAVE ENOUGH CASH ON HAND – I WILL DEPLOY SOME BUT ALSO KEEP SOME POWDER DRY  WHEN MARKET WILL TURN BEARISH AGAIN AFTER JUNE QUARTER RESULTS.  Cash in hand never hurts anyone in these turbulent times.

All along I am only buying stocks with strong balance sheets and very low debt equity ratio.

I have a facebook group SHARE MARKET WEEKLY VIEW.  If you wish you may join that group – IT IS FREE - where I have put up some recommended  entry prices for 60 odd good quality stocks.

As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado or blind consensus following  does not help.  I HAVE JUST GIVEN YOU SOME FOOD FOR YOUR GREY CELLS.   WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?

JUNE   2020 TRADING LEVELS  are  posted . You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. Keep visiting my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/. 

Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce  - even for Mr Buffet  and needs to be respected.

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.

Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.

Keep watching my website www.sumamura.com closely for further inputs. You need to register and login to see modules section where all the levels for different timeframes are  shown.

You can view individual modules for as little as 3,000 rupees per year. A package for all  8  modules for  just 30,000 rupees  for the full year.

Please ping me on 9371002943 on WHATSAPP for any queries.  Please identify yourself clearly.

Indices  monthly levels