June 2020

 MY WEEKLY TAKE

COVID SCARE RESURFACES IN USA IN A BIG WAY –

WILL THE WORLD MARKETS SHIVER ? ? ?

Trading  levels  29^th June / 3^rd July   2020

As I wrote last time – RELIANCE can no more be treated as a STOCK. It deserves the treatment like a SECTORAL INDEX.

The meteoric rise in share price of RELIANCE has put onus on the company to PERFORM. Otherwise this valuation will come off in 2 weeks while it has taken 3 months to go to this price level.  

ONLY PERFORMANCE OF JIO AS A TELECOM COMPANY WILL NOT SUFFICE.  THIS PRICE OF 1700+ ALREADY DISCOUNTS THE SUCCESSFUL ROLLOUT OF JIOMART WITH PARTICIPATION OF MILLIONS OF SMALL KIRANA RETAILERS.

WILL ALL THAT HAPPEN WITH IN A REASONABLE PERIOD OF 9 TO 12 MONTHS IS A MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION.

We need a roll out on piliot basis atleast in one metro by end of the year 2020. That is minimum to hold and support this price level of 1700+.

Currently NIFTY is not going anywhere as the main driver so far was RELIANCE has stopped making big moves. Even then, the bull operators are craftily using the stock to jack up NIFTY level  as and when it starts sinking.

MY CONTENTION IS THAT EVEN DOW FUTURES ARE MANAGED /  MANIPULATED SO THAT THEY WILL RISE BETWEEN 2 TO 3.30 PM.  I HAVE SEEN ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS, THAT IN THE FOLLOWING 2 HRS,  DOW FUTURES GO BACK TO THE LOWER LEVEL PREVAILING AROUND 1.30 / 2 PM.

There are  lot of games being played in a very subtle manner to keep NIFTY around 10,000 level. However, I can see disturbing divergences on daily charts , which indicate a 400/600 point fall in not too far distant future. 

SIMILAR DIVERGENCE IS ARE ALSO VISIBLE ON MIDCAP 100 DAILY CHART.  THIS MEANS, WHEN NIFTY TAKES A KNOCK, THIS TIME MIDCAPS MAY  TAKE A BIGGER KNOCK.

 With a very weak trading session on Friday in American markets, this  promises a very interesting trading week.  Let us see how it goes.

I have a facebook group SHARE MARKET WEEKLY VIEW.  If you wish you may join that group – IT IS FREE - where I have put up some recommended  entry prices for 60 odd good quality stocks.

As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado or blind consensus following  does not help.  I HAVE JUST GIVEN YOU SOME FOOD FOR YOUR GREY CELLS.   WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?