February 2016

position trading	weekly	DATE	22nd / 26th  february 2016
stocks / indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
bse sensex	short	23570	23360/150/22940/730	23780
	long	23990	14200/410/620	23780
CNX IT	short	10740	10590/440/290/140	10890
	long	10890	11040/190/340/490	10740
cnx nifty	short	7146	7090/34/6978/22	7202
	long	7258	7314/70/426	7202

position trading	weekly	DATE	22nd / 26th  february 2016
stocks / indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
bse sensex	short	23570	23360/150/22940/730	23780
	long	23990	14200/410/620	23780
CNX IT	short	10740	10590/440/290/140	10890
	long	10890	11040/190/340/490	10740
cnx nifty	short	7146	7090/34/6978/22	7202
	long	7258	7314/70/426	7202

no intra levels on monday / tuesday.

MY WEEKLY TAKE ......

WILL THE PRE-BUDGET RALLY FINALLY HAPPEN ? ? ?

Trading levels – 22^nd/ 26^th  February  2016

Two weeks ago, I had written of a large move happening and also said that 80 % chance that this move will be a DOWN move. It turned out to be prophetic and we had 600+ NIFTY points down move before bulls staged an intraday recovery. The low of 6869 was earlier seen around 15^th April -  full one month before  NAMO led victory was announced.

NO DOUBT THE FALL WAS IN LINE WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MARKETS BUT IT DISPROVED THE FOLLY OF INDIA BEING A BRIGHT SHINING STAR AMONGST OTHERWISE DULL EMERGING MARKETS.

Our markets were supported by a large inflow of funds coming into  EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS  / EQUITY LINKED INSURANCE SCHEMES till we slipped below the 7359 NIFTY level which was the closing on 26^th may 2014  - NAMO CORONATION day.

Wiping out of all NAMO premium was a RUDE shock to investing masses as most of their portfolios had started showing a negative return over the near two year period. Even though the large scale redemption pressure is still not visible, the Inflow has dwindled to a trickle and now can-not match the money being pulled out by FIIs. THIS HAS RESULTED INTO SHARP FALL OF 600 + POINTS IN A WEEK.

 We have seen some semblance of stability last week – again thanks to global cues – and IT LOOKS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE A 200/250 POINT PRE-BUDGET RALLY IN THE COMING WEEK – provided the global cues continue to be benign.

There is a talk of LONG TERM CAPITAL GAINS regime being tweaked. If that possibility strengthens and there are indications of increased fiscal deficit, we may see further selling before the budget as well, pulling the NIFTY even below the previous low of 6869.

Personally, I will be reducing my equity market commitment by about 20 % if there is strength in the market SINCE I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH POSITIVE FROM THE BUDGET. I am sure that this market will give me ample opportunities to get back into the market at lower levels.

I am suggesting a few stocks which u can buy  as downside risks are rather limited – ELECON / DHFL / AMARA RAJA / NBCC / IDFC BANK / RELIANCE / TATA MOTORS / MARUTI / BHARTI INFRATEL / PSU BANK BEES.  Looks like with about 8 to 10 % downside risk …. You may have 30/35 % upside in 24 months. Please study fundamentals yourself to be doubly sure.

As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado or blind  consensus following  does not help.  I HAVE JUST GIVEN YOU SOME FOOD FOR YOUR GREY CELLS.   WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?

FEBRUARY 2016 TRADING LEVELS ARE posted over the weekend   You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. Keep visiting  my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/. 

Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce  - even for Mr Buffet  and needs to be respected.

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.

Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.

I am available on yahoo messenger on most of the trading days and you can add me on your yahoo messenger. My yahoo id is madhavranade1

Keep watching my website www.sumamura.com closely for further inputs. You need to register and login to see modules section where all the levels for different timeframes are  shown.

You can view individual modules for as little as 3,000 rupees per year. A package for all  8  modules for  just 30,000 rupees  for the full year.

Please call me on 9371002943 for more details.

Indices  weekly levels

prefer trade in the direction of nifty
intra levels		DATE	19th february 2016
stocks / indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
NIFTY SPOT	short	7175	7156/37/18/7099	7194
	long	7213	7232/51/70	7194
bank nifty	short	14280	14160/040/13920/800	14400
	long	14400	14520/640	14280
LT	short	1139	1128/17/06	1150
	long	1150	1161/72/83	1139
yes bank	short	714	710/06/02	718
	long	722	726/30/34	718
shree cement	short	x	x	x
	long	11000	11125/250/375/500	10875
RELIANCE	short	945	937/29/21	953
	long	953	961/69	945
maruti	short	3655	3633/10/3588/65	3677
	long	x	x	x