February 2016

NO INTRA LEVELS TODAY IN VIEW OF THE BUDGET .....

NO INTRA LEVELS TODAY IN VIEW OF THE BUDGET .....

POSN TRADING	weekly	DATE	29th february / 4th march 2016
stocks / indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
ALWAYS PREFER TRADES IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY
cnx nifty	short	7030	6980/30/880/830/780/730/680/630	7080
	long	7130	7180/230/280/330/380	7080
bse sensex	short	23175	23000/22825/650/475/300/125/21950	23350
	long	23525	23700/875/24050225/400	23350
BANK NIFTY	Short	13590	13400/210/020/12830	13780
	Long	13970	14160/350/540	13780
CNX IT	short	10450	10300/150/1000/9850/9700	10600
	long	10600	10750/900/11050/200	10450
AMARA RAJA	Short	855	838/21/04	863.5
	Long	872	889/906	863.5
axis bank	Short	380.5	375/69.5/64/58.5/53	386
	Long	391.5	397/402.5/08/13.5	386
BHARAT FORGE	Short	734	726/18/10/02/694/86	742
	Long	750	758/66/74/82/90/98	742
BOB	Short	131	128/25/22/19/16/13/10	132.5
	Long	134	137/40/43/46/49	132.5
COAL INDIA	Short	309	305/01/297/93/89/85	313
	Long	317	321/25/29/33/37/41	313
HDFC	Short	1048	1033/18/03/988/73	1063
	Long	1078	1093/1108/23/38	1063
hdfc bank	Short	950	932/14/896	968
	Long	968	986/1004/22	950
HUL	Short	851	837/23/09/795	865
	Long	865	879/93/907	851
ICICI BANK	Short	183.5	180/76.5/73	187
	Long	187	190.5/94/97.5/201	183.5
INFOSYS	Short	1113	1093/73/53	1133
	long	1133	1153/73/93	1113
INDUSIND	Short	814	803/792/81/70/59/48	825
	Long	836	847/58/69/80	825
ITC	Short	290	285.5/81/76.5/72/67.5/63	294.5
	Long	299	303.5/08/12.5/17/21.5/26	294.5
LT	Short	1095	1068/51/34/17/1000	1112
	Long	1129	1146/63/80/97	1112
M SUMI	Short	218	213.5/09/04.5/200	222.5
	long	222.5	227/31.5/36/40.5	218
M&M	Short	1231	1211/1191/71/51/31/11/1091/71	1251
	Long	1251	1271/91/1311/31	1231
MARUTI	Short	3377	3323/269/15	3431
	Long	3431	3485/3539/93/647/701/55	3377
NBCC	Short	864	851/38/25/12/799/86/73/60	870.5
	Long	877	890/903/16/29/42	870.5
ONGC	Short	213.5	208.5/03.5/198.5	216
	long	218.5	223.5/28.5/33.5	216
PNB	Short	71	69/67/65	73
	Long	75	77/79/81/83	73
RELIANCE	Short	940	925/10/895/80	955
	long	955	970/85/1000/15/30	940
SBI	Short	153	149/45/41	155
	Long	157	161/65/69/73	155
sun pharma	Short	869	861/53/45/37/29/21	877
	Long	885	893/901/09/17/25	877
TATAMOTORS	Short	302	294/86/78/70	306
	Long	310	318/26/34/42/50	306
tata steel	Short	245	239/33/27/21/15	248
	Long	251	257/63/69/75	248
TCS	Short	2190	2170/50/30/10/2090/70/50	2210
	Long	2230	2250/70/90/310/330/350	2210
VOLTAS	Short	223	216/09/02/195/88/81	226.5
	Long	230	237/44/51/58	226.5
CNX AUTO	short	7120	x	7230
	long	7230	x	7120
CNX ENERGY	short	7715	x	7770
	long	7770	x	7715
CNX FMCG	short	18330	x	18510
	long	18510	x	18330
CNX INFRA	short	2310	x	2350
	long	2350	x	2310
CNX METAL	short	1650	x	1665
	long	1665	x	1650
CNX MIDCAP	short	11470	x	11630
	long	11630	x	11470
CNX PHARMA	short	11150	x	11270
	long	11270	x	11150
CNX PSU BANKS	short	2020	x	2040
	long	2040	x	2020
CNX REALTY	short	129.25	x	131.5
	long	131.5	x	129.25

NO  PRE-BUDGET RALLY – ARE YOU SURPRISED ? ? ?

Trading levels – 29th  February / 4^th March   2016

I have been following UNION BUDGETS for 37 years now. BUT I HAVE NOT SEEN SUCH APATHY ANYTIME. This time no one – absolutely no one –  The Business Fraternity OR The Marketmen OR The General Public … is interested in this important event.

Let me put forward a few reasons for that…

1… MODI euphoria has fully vanished. People expected that he will do wonders with the economy. None of that sort has happened and euphoria has slowly given way to despair. NOW NO ONE HAS ANY EXPECTATIONS.

2… In spite of change in the GDP calculating methodology, we are struggling to cross 7 … at the most 7.5  annual growth rate figure. Just imagine  - in the UPA 1 regime …. We had clocked 7.5 to 8 % AVERAGE GROWTH RATE ( over 5 years ) as per the old calculation … WHICH SHUD BE GENERALLY 10+ AS PER NEW CALCULATION. Naturally, all government and private sector calculations / projections about tax collections / revenue / net profit etc have gone haywire and it is difficult to align with the reality.

3… Marketmen have realized that EARNINGS GROWTH is a reality and not some virtual calculated number. Since there is minimal earnings growth, even the high P/E discounting figures have come down resulting in to the crash of stock valuations. Most portfolios have taken a big knock and most participants are not able to bring in new cash to take advantage of attractive valuations. SO THE MARKET IS LOOKING EXTREMELY TIRED AND NOW FALLING UNDER IT’S OWN WEIGHT. SOME ANLYISTS ARE DESCRIBING THIS AS ‘BUYERS STRIKE’.

4… Global markets are in a disarray and have become extremely volatile with alternate bouts of buying and selling. They have entered a long term down trend. This  sentiment is getting reflected in our markets as well.

5… WHILE CRASH OF COMMODITIES was good for Indian economy up to a point. But now the prices are so much down that IT IS HURTING THE ECONOMY. Commodity companies are in dire straits and some are quoting even below book value. Naturally, the lending banks are also facing the heat and the vicious cycle has started.

6… LAST AND MOST IMPORTANT --- our FM is treating his responsibility like a part time job and he is seen doubling as spokesperson for the party for every small issue. FM is a full time job and we have seen how the earlier FMs have slogged for 2/3 months before the budget  and applied their mind whole heartedly to the job in hand. SOME HOW THIS ERNESTNESS IS MISSING AND CLEARLY VISIBLE TO ALL AND SUNDRY.

There is a talk of LONG TERM CAPITAL GAINS regime being tweaked. If that is a reality and there is increased fiscal deficit, we will see further selling after the budget as well, pulling the NIFTY even to the low of 6500.

I am suggesting a few stocks which u can buy  as downside risks are rather limited – ELECON / DHFL / AMARA RAJA / NBCC / IDFC BANK / RELIANCE / TATA MOTORS / MARUTI / BHARTI INFRATEL / PSU BANK BEES.  Looks like with about 8 to 10 % downside risk …. You may have 30/35 % upside in 24 months. Please study fundamentals yourself to be doubly sure.

As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado or blind  consensus following  does not help.  I HAVE JUST GIVEN YOU SOME FOOD FOR YOUR GREY CELLS.   WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?

FEBRUARY 2016 TRADING LEVELS ARE posted over the weekend   You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. Keep visiting  my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/. 

Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce  - even for Mr Buffet  and needs to be respected.

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.

Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.

I am available on yahoo messenger on most of the trading days and you can add me on your yahoo messenger. My yahoo id is madhavranade1

Keep watching my website www.sumamura.com closely for further inputs. You need to register and login to see modules section where all the levels for different timeframes are  shown.

You can view individual modules for as little as 3,000 rupees per year. A package for all  8  modules for  just 30,000 rupees  for the full year.

Please call me on 9371002943 for more details.

Indices  weekly levels

prefer trade in the direction of nifty
intra levels		DATE	26th february 2016
stocks / indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
NIFTY SPOT	short	7032	7000/6968/36/04/6872/40	7064
	long	7064	7096/128/160	7032
bank nifty	short	13700	13620/540/460/380/300	13780
	long	13780	13860/940/14020	13700
PFC	short	156	154/52/50	158
	long	158	160/62/64	156
auro pharma	short	591	584/77/70/63/56	598
	long	598	605/12/19/26	591
maruti	short	3420	3395/70/45	3445
	long	3445	3470/95/520	3420
powergrid	short	132	130/28/26	133
	long	134	136/38	133
tech mahindra	short	417.5	415/12.5/10/07.5/05/02.5/400	420
	long	420	422.5/25/27.5/30	417.5