July 2015
BULLS STRIKE HARD AS GREECE / CHINA FEARS RECEDE . . .
Trading levels – 20th / 24th JULY 2015
Greece parliament finally came out with a verdict that was more or less known. But that ended the 3 week uncertainty for the time being. China stock market crisis is currently being shoved under the carpet as trading in more than 70 % of stocks is halted arresting further fall.
Both these developments provided the required elixir for the bulls. CPI number was above 5 % but WPI continued to remain well in the negative territory. The bulls are expecting the government to lean on RBI when it meets during first week of august for a SURPRISE RATE CUT. This possibility as well as clarification about merging of all caps on various types of FII / FDI holdings meant that BANKNIFTY simply catapulted to 3 month high.
I feel INFY results in the coming week will decide near term trajectory for the NIFTY. Banks and IT stocks kept moving up together last week. I expect banks to take a breather this week and if CNX IT dips …. The result will be a dip in NIFTY as well.
FIIs have started moderate buying in cash and rather heavy buying in NIFTY futures. Shah committee report about MAT is also expected by end of the week. All this means we have an interesting week of trading on hand. I WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD MY NEAR TERM BULLISH VIEW TILL THE LAST SWING LOW OF 8341 IS VIOLATED.
MIDCAP INDEX AND JUNIOR NIFTY INDEX HAVE MADE NEW ALL TIME HIGHS. This indicates that broader market is much more bullish than benchmark indices and we will need some big downside surprises in quarterly results to break this euphoric feeling.
The monsoon session of parliament starts on 21st and this could be one sign of worry as the full session is expected to be washed out - without passing either the GST or the LAND bill.
PLEASE KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SIGNIFICANT SET-BACK WHILE TAKING LONG POSITIONS.
As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado or blind consensus following does not help. I HAVE JUST GIVEN YOU SOME FOOD FOR YOUR GREY CELLS. WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?
JULY 2015 TRADING LEVELS are posted. You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. Keep visiting my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/.
Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce - even for Mr Buffet and needs to be respected.
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Indices weekly levels
|
position trading |
weekly |
DATE |
20th / 24th JULY 2015 |
|
|
stocks / indices |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
bse sensex |
short |
28270 |
17970/670/370/070 |
28570 |
|
long |
28570 |
28870/29170/470 |
28270 |
|
|
CNX IT |
short |
11240 |
11160/080/11000/10920 |
11320 |
|
long |
11320 |
11400/480/560/640 |
11240 |
|
|
CNX AUTO |
short |
8410 |
x |
8465 |
|
long |
8465 |
x |
8410 |
|
|
CNX ENERGY |
short |
8860 |
x |
8950 |
|
long |
8950 |
x |
8860 |
|
|
CNX FMCG |
short |
20520 |
x |
20600 |
|
long |
20680 |
x |
20600 |
|
|
CNX INFRA |
short |
3385 |
x |
3420 |
|
long |
3420 |
x |
3385 |
|
|
CNX METAL |
short |
2205 |
x |
2230 |
|
long |
2230 |
x |
2205 |
|
|
CNX MIDCAP |
short |
13640 |
x |
13760 |
|
long |
13760 |
x |
13640 |
|
|
CNX PHARMA |
short |
13160 |
x |
13240 |
|
long |
13240 |
x |
13160 |
|
|
CNX PSU BANKS |
short |
3365 |
x |
3410 |
|
long |
3410 |
x |
3365 |
|
|
CNX REALTY |
short |
181 |
x |
183.25 |
|
long |
183.25 |
x |
181 |
|
PREFER TO TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY |
||||
|
intra levels |
|
DATE |
20th july 2015 |
|
|
stocks / indices |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
NIFTY SPOT |
short |
8626 |
8598/70/42/14 |
8654 |
|
long |
8654 |
8682/710 |
8626 |
|
|
bank nifty |
short |
19120 |
19035/18950/865/780 |
19205 |
|
long |
19205 |
19290/375 |
19120 |
|
|
federal bank |
short |
72.25 |
71/69.75/68.5/67.25/66 |
73.5 |
|
long |
73.5 |
74.75/76 |
72.25 |
|
|
BEL |
short |
3650 |
3624/598/572/46/20/494/68/42/16 |
3676 |
|
long |
3676 |
3702/28 |
3650 |
|
|
CONCOR |
short |
1846 |
1828/10/1792/74/56 |
1864 |
|
long |
1864 |
1882/1900 |
1846 |
|
|
HDFC |
short |
1327 |
1317/07/1297/87 |
1337 |
|
long |
1337 |
1347/57 |
1327 |
|
|
PREFER TO TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY |
||||
|
intra levels |
|
DATE |
20th july 2015 |
|
|
stocks / indices |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
NIFTY SPOT |
short |
8626 |
8598/70/42/14 |
8654 |
|
long |
8654 |
8682/710 |
8626 |
|
|
bank nifty |
short |
19120 |
19035/18950/865/780 |
19205 |
|
long |
19205 |
19290/375 |
19120 |
|
|
federal bank |
short |
72.25 |
71/69.75/68.5/67.25/66 |
73.5 |
|
long |
73.5 |
74.75/76 |
72.25 |
|
|
BEL |
short |
3650 |
3624/598/572/46/20/494/68/42/16 |
3676 |
|
long |
3676 |
3702/28 |
3650 |
|
|
CONCOR |
short |
1846 |
1828/10/1792/74/56 |
1864 |
|
long |
1864 |
1882/1900 |
1846 |
|
|
HDFC |
short |
1327 |
1317/07/1297/87 |
1337 |
|
long |
1337 |
1347/57 |
1327 |
|
|
POSN TRADING |
weekly |
DATE |
20th / 24th JULY 2015 |
|
|
stocks / indices |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
ALWAYS PREFER TRADES IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY |
||||
|
cnx nifty |
short |
8585 |
8515/445/375/305 |
8655 |
|
long |
8655 |
8725/95/865 |
8585 |
|
|
bse sensex |
short |
28270 |
17970/670/370/070 |
28570 |
|
long |
28570 |
28870/29170/470 |
28270 |
|
|
BANK NIFTY |
Short |
18960 |
18840/720/600/480/360/240 |
19080 |
|
Long |
19200 |
19320/440/560/680/800 |
19080 |
|
|
CNX IT |
short |
11240 |
11160/080/11000/10920 |
11320 |
|
long |
11320 |
11400/480/560/640 |
11240 |
|
|
POSN TRADING |
weekly |
DATE |
20th / 24th JULY 2015 |
|
|
stocks / indices |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
ALWAYS PREFER TRADES IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY |
||||
|
cnx nifty |
short |
8585 |
8515/445/375/305 |
8655 |
|
long |
8655 |
8725/95/865 |
8585 |
|
|
bse sensex |
short |
28270 |
17970/670/370/070 |
28570 |
|
long |
28570 |
28870/29170/470 |
28270 |
|
|
BANK NIFTY |
Short |
18960 |
18840/720/600/480/360/240 |
19080 |
|
Long |
19200 |
19320/440/560/680/800 |
19080 |
|
|
CNX IT |
short |
11240 |
11160/080/11000/10920 |
11320 |
|
long |
11320 |
11400/480/560/640 |
11240 |
|
|
aurobindo |
Short |
1506 |
1492/78/64/50 |
1520 |
|
Long |
1520 |
1534/48/62/76/90 |
1506 |
|
|
axis bank |
Short |
600 |
595/90/85/80/75/70/65/60/55/50 |
605 |
|
Long |
605 |
610/15/20/25/30/35/40 |
600 |
|
|
BHARAT FORGE |
Short |
1116 |
1100/1084/68/52/36 |
1124 |
|
Long |
1132 |
1148/64/80 |
1124 |
|
|
BOB |
Short |
156.5 |
155/53.5/52/50.5/49 |
158 |
|
Long |
158 |
159.5/61/62.5/64/65.5/67 |
156.5 |
|
|
BHARTI |
Short |
424 |
420/16/12/08/04/400 |
428 |
|
Long |
428 |
432/36/40/44/48 |
424 |
|
|
CIPLA |
Short |
682 |
676/70/64/58/52/46/40 |
688 |
|
Long |
688 |
694/700/06/12/18 |
682 |
|
|
COAL INDIA |
Short |
424 |
417/10/03/396/89 |
427.5 |
|
Long |
431 |
438/45/52/59 |
427.5 |
|
|
dr reddys |
Short |
3858 |
3830/02/3774/46/18/3690 |
3886 |
|
Long |
3886 |
3914/42/70/98 |
3858 |
|
|
HDFC |
Short |
1318 |
1305/1292/79/66/53/40 |
1331 |
|
Long |
1331 |
1344/57/70/83/96 |
1318 |
|
|
hdfc bank |
Short |
1098 |
1087/76/65/54 |
1109 |
|
Long |
1109 |
1120/31/42/53 |
1098 |
|
|
HUL |
Short |
919 |
904/889/74 |
926.5 |
|
Long |
934 |
949/64/79 |
926.5 |
|
|
ICICI BANK |
Short |
313 |
307/01/295/89/83 |
316 |
|
Long |
319 |
325/31/37 |
316 |
|
|
IDEA |
Short |
180 |
178/76/74/72/70 |
182 |
|
long |
182 |
184/86/88/90 |
180 |
|
|
INFOSYS |
Short |
983 |
968/53/38/23/08 |
998 |
|
long |
998 |
1013/28/43 |
983 |
|
|
ITC |
Short |
318 |
312/06/300 |
321 |
|
Long |
324 |
330/36/42 |
321 |
|
|
LIC HSG |
Short |
469 |
462/55/48/41/34/27/20 |
472.5 |
|
long |
476 |
483/90/97 |
472.5 |
|
|
LT |
Short |
1857 |
1842/27/12/1797/82/67 |
1872 |
|
Long |
1872 |
1887/1902/17/32 |
1857 |
|
|
M SUMI |
Short |
520 |
514/08/02/496/90 |
526 |
|
long |
526 |
532/38/44/50 |
520 |
|
|
MARUTI |
Short |
4148 |
4115/082/49/16 |
4181 |
|
Long |
4181 |
4214/47/80 |
4148 |
|
|
RELIANCE |
Short |
1011 |
999/87/75/63/51 |
1023 |
|
long |
1023 |
1035/47/59 |
1011 |
|
|
SBI |
Short |
268 |
264/60/56/52 |
270 |
|
Long |
272 |
276/80/84 |
270 |
|
|
sun pharma |
Short |
941 |
926/11/896/81 |
948.5 |
|
Long |
956 |
971/86/1001 |
948.5 |
|
|
TATAMOTORS |
Short |
400 |
396/92/88/84/80/76/72 |
404 |
|
Long |
404 |
408/12/16/20 |
400 |
|
|
TCS |
Short |
2557 |
2536/15/494/73/52/31/10 |
2578 |
|
Long |
2578 |
2599/620/641 |
2557 |
|
|
ULTRATECH |
Short |
3188 |
3149/10/3071/32 |
3227 |
|
Long |
3227 |
3266/305/44 |
3188 |
|
|
VOLTAS |
Short |
316 |
311/06/01/296 |
318.5 |
|
Long |
321 |
326/31/36/41 |
318.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CNX AUTO |
short |
8410 |
x |
8465 |
|
long |
8465 |
x |
8410 |
|
|
CNX ENERGY |
short |
8860 |
x |
8950 |
|
long |
8950 |
x |
8860 |
|
|
CNX FMCG |
short |
20520 |
x |
20600 |
|
long |
20680 |
x |
20600 |
|
|
CNX INFRA |
short |
3385 |
x |
3420 |
|
long |
3420 |
x |
3385 |
|
|
CNX METAL |
short |
2205 |
x |
2230 |
|
long |
2230 |
x |
2205 |
|
|
CNX MIDCAP |
short |
13640 |
x |
13760 |
|
long |
13760 |
x |
13640 |
|
|
CNX PHARMA |
short |
13160 |
x |
13240 |
|
long |
13240 |
x |
13160 |
|
|
CNX PSU BANKS |
short |
3365 |
x |
3410 |
|
long |
3410 |
x |
3365 |
|
|
CNX REALTY |
short |
181 |
x |
183.25 |
|
long |
183.25 |
x |
181 |
|
