June 2014

MY WEEKLY TAKE

Trading levels --- 30^th June / 4^th July   2014

FII flows are down to a trickle and HNIs / Operators are busy in distribution of large caps / midcaps which they have managed to take up by 40/50 %. Hence the NIFTY is being manipulated by sector rotation as NIFTY above 7500 is keeping retail  investors  complacent and they are holding back from profit booking / redemptions in equity Mutual Funds.

Thursday was a clear example of that. We had a big bad news of DEFERMENT OF DECISION OVER GAS PRICE HIKE.  SGX was managed and all business channels were also compromised in such a way that - neither the anchors nor the guest speakers - nobody spoke of 3 to 4 % downside to the Oil and Gas Index which is an important component of NIFTY. IN REALITY MARKET DID SHOW A DEEP GASH IN FIRST 10 MINUTES OF TRADE.

Now ONGC and RELIANCE – both are under significant pressure. Pressure on RELIANCE will accentuate next week due to issues raised by CAG with respect to RELJIO. The stock will slip below 1000 and move towards 950 depending on how much RELJIO business plans will get affected. Correspondingly other telecom stocks may show minor uptick.

I still maintain that the next and important pit-stop for NIFTY is 7458 – 7479 zone . We broke thru it  one time last week but managed to give daily close above that. This should offer sizeable support but the break will open flood gates for 7200.

Last week IT and Pharma helped NIFTY to give a weekly positive close but slowly these stocks are moving in overbought zone and their capacity to lend further support is rather limited. BANKING is showing weakness along with Oil and Gas and that is a cause for concern.

Mmid-cap panic will set in when  and if  we break 7450 level. Please be alert for good entry opportunities and they could be as much as 30 / 35 % lower in midcap momentum stocks.

For July series, people with money should make 7500 / 7200 bear spreads and 7500 / 7700 bull spreads. Punters who don’t want to  give margin money, can buy 7200 put and 7700 call. I think they will make money in two days after the budget by liquidating call and the put separately and selectively – not at the same time.

Keeping in mind very slow progress of rains, it looks that we are destined to go below 7,200 – towards 6,800 before we hit 8,000.  SO PLAN YOUR PORTFOLIO STRATEGY ACCORDINGLY.  Don’t become suckers in the hand of brokers / AMCs and business channels.

I still maintain my BANK NIFTY target of 14300 which will be probably met when NIFTY will go to 7200.

As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado or blind following  does not help.  I HAVE JUST GIVEN YOU SOME FOOD FOR YOUR GREY CELLS. WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?

JULY  2014 TRADING LEVELS will be out  on 2^nd JULY . You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. I have also released CY 2014  trading levels  on my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/. 

Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce and needs to be respected.

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.

Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.

I am available on yahoo messenger on most of the trading days and you can add me on your yahoo messenger. My yahoo id is madhavranade1

Keep watching my website www.sumamura.com closely for further inputs. You need to register and login to see modules section where all the levels for different timeframes are  shown.

You can view individual modules for as little as 3,000 rupees per year. A package for all  8  modules for  just 30,000 rupees  for the full year.

Please call me on 9371002943 for more details.

Indices  weekly levels

World   Commodities

  i hv stuck my neck out and given intra levels today which none of the channels are talking. i firmly believe that gas price hike deferral is an important event although the pink papers and business channels are playing it down.

so watch these levels and trade .... i sincerely belive that u r going to make money ........

  i hv stuck my neck out and given intra levels today which none of the channels are talking. i firmly believe that gas price hike deferral is an important event although the pink papers and business channels are playing it down.

so watch these levels and trade .... i sincerely belive that u r going to make money ........