April 2014
MY WEEKLY TAKE
Trading levels --- 28th April / 2nd May 2014
The 4 day truncated week ended with an engulfing bear candle on daily charts which left an inverted hammer on a weekly chart. These signs do not indicate an up-move next week. In fact, monsoon data is also a dampener which is likely to restrict new government’s hands as fear of partial draught is looming large which will call for diversification of some funds from industrial to agricultural activity.
As such, on Friday , FMCG stocks have come under hammer and this pressure is likely to continue next week as well. Banks also could not buck the trend in second half on Friday which resulted into 1 % cut on NIFTY by the end of the day.
All high beta stocks were only discounting good news for last 3 weeks but now it seems that the reality is coming to the fore and some caution is being exercised while taking fresh positions.
I had expected Reliance to slide towards 930/940 last week as the results were just in line. I feel the share is more than fairly valued since I prefer to treat the stock as refinery stock which should get discounting of 8 to 10 times maximum. More than 75 % of turnover and profit comes from refining activity. However due to sentimental reasons, the analysts prefer to treat it as PETCHEM stock with exploration as an icing. SOONER THE PUBLIC AND THE ANALYSTS GET WISER, BETTER FOR OUR MARKETS.
As I had stated last week, we did not see any follow-up move this week after massive 100 point up-move last Friday.
I had expected BANKING to come under pressure again and it did towards the end of the week. May be markets disregarded caution earlier due to FAO expiry considerations. REALITY IS SINKING IN BUT AFTER SOME LAG, UNFORTUNATELY.
WE MUST STILL CONTINUE TO WATCH GLOBAL SET-UP VERY CAREFULLY FOR ITS WIDER RAMIFICATIONS.
I have started deploying part of the cash holding in frontline IT stocks as these will act as best defense if there is severe mid-may market reversal. All other stocks - including big FMCG / consumption names which were holding sway earlier - will simply collapse denting your portfolio severely.
12800/12300 BANKNIFTY BEAR SPREAD WAS A COMPLETE WASHOUT BUT COST WAS ANYWAY MARGINAL. For first 2 weeks of this long FAO cycle, we should sell out of money calls like 7000/7100 and out of money puts like 6400/6300 and play on volatility premium.
As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado does not help. WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?
APRIL 2014 TRADING LEVELS are out on 2nd April . You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. I have also released CY 2014 trading levels on my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/.
Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce and needs to be respected.
My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.
Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.
I am available on yahoo messenger on most of the trading days and you can add me on your yahoo messenger. My yahoo id is madhavranade1
Keep watching my website www.sumamura.com closely for further inputs. You need to register and login to see modules section where all the levels for different timeframes are shown.
You can view individual modules for as little as 3,000 rupees per year. A package for all 8 modules for just 30,000 rupees for the full year.
Please call me on 9371002943 for more details.
Indices weekly levels
|
TER POSN TRADING |
weekly |
DATE |
28th april / 2nd may 2014 |
|
|
stocks / indices |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
bse sensex |
short |
22410 |
22150/21890/630/370 |
22670 |
|
long |
22670 |
22930/23190 |
22410 |
|
|
CNX IT |
short |
9230 |
9160/090/020 |
9300 |
|
long |
9300 |
9370/440/510 |
9230 |
|
|
CNX AUTO |
short |
5910 |
x |
5950 |
|
long |
5950 |
x |
5910 |
|
|
CNX ENERGY |
short |
8410 |
x |
8480 |
|
long |
8480 |
x |
8410 |
|
|
CNX FMCG |
short |
17750 |
x |
17870 |
|
long |
17870 |
x |
17750 |
|
|
CNX INFRA |
short |
2707 |
x |
2727 |
|
long |
2727 |
x |
2707 |
|
|
CNX METAL |
short |
2595 |
x |
2640 |
|
long |
2640 |
x |
2595 |
|
|
CNX MIDCAP |
short |
8850 |
x |
8945 |
|
long |
8945 |
x |
8850 |
|
|
CNX PHARMA |
short |
7960 |
x |
8040 |
|
long |
8040 |
x |
7960 |
|
|
CNX PSU BANKS |
short |
2935 |
x |
2975 |
|
long |
2975 |
x |
2935 |
|
|
CNX REALTY |
short |
191 |
x |
193.5 |
|
long |
193.5 |
x |
191 |
WORLD INDICES
|
weekly |
|
DATE |
28th April / 2nd May 2014 |
|
|
world indices |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
S & P |
short |
1855 |
1833/11/1789/67 |
1877 |
|
long |
1877 |
1899/1921/43 |
1855 |
|
|
nasdaq comp |
short |
4076 |
4032/3998/964/930 |
4110 |
|
long |
4110 |
4144/78/212/246 |
4076 |
|
|
dow jones |
short |
16280 |
16120/15960/800 |
16440 |
|
long |
16440 |
16600/760/920 |
16280 |
|
|
FTSE |
short |
6640 |
6590/540/490/440 |
6690 |
|
long |
6690 |
6740/790/840/890 |
6640 |
|
|
nikkei |
short |
14300 |
14175/050/13925/800 |
14425 |
|
long |
14425 |
14550/675/800/925 |
14300 |
|
|
australian ord |
short |
5500 |
5450/400/350/300 |
5550 |
|
long |
5550 |
5600/650/700 |
5500 |
|
|
hangseng |
short |
22300 |
22150/22000/21850/700 |
22450 |
|
long |
22450 |
22600/750/900 |
22300 |
|
|
shanghai |
short |
2123 |
2103/2083/63 |
2143 |
|
long |
2143 |
2163/83/2203 |
2123 |
COMMODITIES
|
weekly |
|
DATE |
28th april / 2nd may 2014 |
|
|
|
commodity |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
|
gold |
short |
1300 |
1287/74/61/48/35 |
1313 |
US$ / T ounce |
|
long |
1313 |
1326/39/52/65 |
1300 |
||
|
silver |
short |
19.68 |
19.49/19.3/19.11/18.92/18.73 |
19.87 |
US$ / T ounce |
|
long |
19.87 |
20.06/20.25/20.44/20.63 |
19.68 |
||
|
crude |
short |
100.7 |
99.8/98.9/98 |
101.6 |
US$ / barrel |
|
long |
101.6 |
102.5/03.4/04.3 |
100.7 |
|
intra day |
|
DATE |
28th april 2014 |
|
|
stocks / indices |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
PREFER TO TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY . . . |
||||
|
bank nifty |
short |
13020 |
12930/840/750/660 |
13110 |
|
long |
13110 |
13200/290 |
13020 |
|
|
RELIANCE |
short |
946 |
940.5/35/29.5/24 |
951.5 |
|
long |
951.5 |
957/62.5 |
946 |
|
|
SBI |
short |
2080 |
2071/62/53/44 |
2089 |
|
long |
2089 |
2098/107/16 |
2080 |
|
|
ICICI BANK |
short |
1266 |
1257/48/39/30 |
1275 |
|
long |
1275 |
1284/93 |
1266 |
|
|
LT |
short |
1351 |
1343/35/27/19 |
1359 |
|
long |
1359 |
1367/75 |
1351 |
|
|
TATA MOTORS |
short |
424 |
422/20/18/16/14 |
426 |
|
long |
426 |
428/30/32/34/36 |
424 |
|
|
tata elxsi |
short |
552.5 |
550/47.5/45/42.5/40 |
555 |
|
long |
555 |
557.5/60/62.5/65 |
552.5 |
|
|
indusind |
short |
488 |
485/82/79/76/73/70 |
491 |
|
long |
491 |
494/97/500 |
488 |
|
|
ceat |
short |
386 |
382/78/74/70 |
390 |
|
long |
390 |
394/98/402 |
396 |
|
|
apollo tyres |
short |
168 |
166.5/65/63.5/62 |
169.5 |
|
long |
169.5 |
171/72.5/74 |
168 |
|
|
TWL |
short |
216 |
212.5/09/05.5/02 |
219.5 |
|
long |
219.5 |
223/26.5/30 |
216 |
|
|
intra day |
|
DATE |
28th april 2014 |
|
|
stocks / indices |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
PREFER TO TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY . . . |
||||
|
bank nifty |
short |
13020 |
12930/840/750/660 |
13110 |
|
long |
13110 |
13200/290 |
13020 |
|
|
RELIANCE |
short |
946 |
940.5/35/29.5/24 |
951.5 |
|
long |
951.5 |
957/62.5 |
946 |
|
|
SBI |
short |
2080 |
2071/62/53/44 |
2089 |
|
long |
2089 |
2098/107/16 |
2080 |
|
|
ICICI BANK |
short |
1266 |
1257/48/39/30 |
1275 |
|
long |
1275 |
1284/93 |
1266 |
|
|
LT |
short |
1351 |
1343/35/27/19 |
1359 |
|
long |
1359 |
1367/75 |
1351 |
|
|
TATA MOTORS |
short |
424 |
422/20/18/16/14 |
426 |
|
long |
426 |
428/30/32/34/36 |
424 |
|
|
tata elxsi |
short |
552.5 |
550/47.5/45/42.5/40 |
555 |
|
long |
555 |
557.5/60/62.5/65 |
552.5 |
|
|
indusind |
short |
488 |
485/82/79/76/73/70 |
491 |
|
long |
491 |
494/97/500 |
488 |
|
|
ceat |
short |
386 |
382/78/74/70 |
390 |
|
long |
390 |
394/98/402 |
396 |
|
|
apollo tyres |
short |
168 |
166.5/65/63.5/62 |
169.5 |
|
long |
169.5 |
171/72.5/74 |
168 |
|
|
TWL |
short |
216 |
212.5/09/05.5/02 |
219.5 |
|
long |
219.5 |
223/26.5/30 |
216 |
|
|
POSN TRADING |
weekly |
DATE |
28th april / 2nd may 2014 |
|
|
stocks / indices |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
ALWAYS PREFER TRADES IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY |
||||
|
cnx nifty |
short |
6724 |
6646/568/490/412 |
6802 |
|
long |
6802 |
6880/958 |
6724 |
|
|
bse sensex |
short |
22410 |
22150/21890/630/370 |
22670 |
|
long |
22670 |
22930/23190 |
22410 |
|
|
BANK NIFTY |
Short |
13020 |
12930/840/750/660/570/480 |
13110 |
|
Long |
13110 |
13200/290/380 |
13020 |
|
|
CNX IT |
short |
9230 |
9160/090/020 |
9300 |
|
long |
9300 |
9370/440/510 |
9230 |
|
|
ACC |
Short |
1306 |
1293/80/67/54 |
1319 |
|
Long |
1319 |
1332/45/58 |
1306 |
|
|
aurobindo |
Short |
573 |
567/61/55/49/43/37/31 |
579 |
|
Long |
579 |
585/91/97/603 |
573 |
|
|
axis bank |
Short |
1525 |
1510/1495/80/65/50/35/20 |
1540 |
|
Long |
1540 |
1555/70/85/1600 |
1525 |
|
|
BOB |
Short |
812 |
805/798/91/84/77/70 |
819 |
|
Long |
819 |
826/33/40 |
812 |
|
|
BHARTI |
Short |
335 |
329.5/24/18.5/13/07.5/02 |
|
|
Long |
340.5 |
346/51.5/57 |
338 |
|
|
CIPLA |
Short |
382 |
376/70/64/58 |
385 |
|
Long |
388 |
394/400/06 |
385 |
|
|
divis lab |
Short |
1367 |
1353/39/25/11/1297/83/69 |
1381 |
|
long |
1381 |
1395/1409/23/37 |
1367 |
|
|
dr reddys |
Short |
2636 |
2614/2592/70/48/26/04 |
2658 |
|
Long |
2658 |
2680/2702/24/46 |
2636 |
|
|
glenmark pharma |
Short |
570 |
563/56/49/42 |
577 |
|
Long |
577 |
584/91/98/605 |
570 |
|
|
HCL TECH |
Short |
1447 |
1436/25/14/03 |
1458 |
|
long |
1458 |
1469/80/91/1502 |
1447 |
|
|
HDFC |
Short |
893 |
886/79/72/65/58/51 |
900 |
|
Long |
900 |
907/14/21/28 |
893 |
|
|
hdfc bank |
Short |
727 |
721/15/09/03/697/91 |
733 |
|
Long |
733 |
739/45/51/57 |
727 |
|
|
HUL |
Short |
578 |
571/64/57/50 |
585 |
|
Long |
585 |
592/99/606/13/20 |
578 |
|
|
ICICI BANK |
Short |
1270 |
1253/36/19/02 |
1278 |
|
Long |
1287 |
1304/21/38 |
1278 |
|
|
IDFC |
Short |
114.5 |
113.25/12/10.75/09.5 |
115.75 |
|
Long |
115.75 |
117/18.25/19.5 |
114.5 |
|
|
INFOSYS |
Short |
3180 |
3150/20/3090/60/30/3000 |
3210 |
|
long |
3210 |
3240/70/3300 |
3210 |
|
|
ITC |
Short |
344 |
341/38/35/32/29 |
347 |
|
Long |
347 |
350/53/56/59/62 |
344 |
|
|
LT |
Short |
1356 |
1343/30/17/04/1291/78/65 |
1369 |
|
Long |
1369 |
1382/95 |
1356 |
|
|
M&M |
Short |
1061 |
1049/37/25/13/01 |
1073 |
|
Long |
1073 |
1085/97/1109 |
1061 |
|
|
MARUTI |
Short |
1898 |
1868/38/08 |
1928 |
|
Long |
1928 |
1958/78/2008/38 |
1898 |
|
|
ONGC |
Short |
322 |
318.5/15/11.5/08/04.5/01 |
325.5 |
|
long |
325.5 |
329/32.5/36 |
322 |
|
|
PNB |
Short |
789 |
779/69/59/49 |
799 |
|
Long |
799 |
809/19/29 |
789 |
|
|
RELIANCE |
Short |
949 |
939/29/19/09/899 |
959 |
|
long |
959 |
869/79/89 |
949 |
|
|
sun pharma |
Short |
611 |
601/591/81/71 |
616 |
|
Long |
621 |
631/41/51 |
616 |
|
|
SBI |
Short |
2090 |
2066/42/18/1994/70 |
2114 |
|
Long |
2114 |
2138/62/86 |
2090 |
|
|
TATAMOTORS |
Short |
420.5 |
415/09.5/04/398.5 |
426 |
|
Long |
426 |
431.5/37/42.5 |
420.5 |
|
|
TATASTEEL |
Short |
428.5 |
423/17.5/12/06.5/01 |
433 |
|
Long |
433 |
438.5/44/49.5/55 |
428.5 |
|
|
TCS |
Short |
2218 |
2189/60/31/02 |
2232 |
|
Long |
2247 |
2276/305/34 |
2232 |
|
|
tech mahindra |
Short |
1800 |
1779/58/37/16/1695/76 |
1821 |
|
Long |
1821 |
1842/63/84 |
1800 |
|
|
VOLTAS |
Short |
167 |
164.75/62.5/60.25/58/55.75/53.5 |
169.25 |
|
Long |
169.25 |
171.5/73.75/76 |
167 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CNX AUTO |
short |
5910 |
x |
5950 |
|
long |
5950 |
x |
5910 |
|
|
CNX ENERGY |
short |
8410 |
x |
8480 |
|
long |
8480 |
x |
8410 |
|
|
CNX FMCG |
short |
17750 |
x |
17870 |
|
long |
17870 |
x |
17750 |
|
|
CNX INFRA |
short |
2707 |
x |
2727 |
|
long |
2727 |
x |
2707 |
|
|
CNX METAL |
short |
2595 |
x |
2640 |
|
long |
2640 |
x |
2595 |
|
|
CNX MIDCAP |
short |
8850 |
x |
8945 |
|
long |
8945 |
x |
8850 |
|
|
CNX PHARMA |
short |
7960 |
x |
8040 |
|
long |
8040 |
x |
7960 |
|
|
CNX PSU BANKS |
short |
2935 |
x |
2975 |
|
long |
2975 |
x |
2935 |
|
|
CNX REALTY |
short |
191 |
x |
193.5 |
|
long |
193.5 |
x |
191 |
|
NIFTY SPOT INTRA