March 2014
MY WEEKLY TAKE .....
Trading levels --- 31st March / 4th April 2014
In last 2 weeks, we have seen what brute money power can do to markets ! ! ! The positive sentiment about possible NAMO victory was always there but jet fuel was provided by nearly 15,000 crores pumped in by FIIs in 9 straight trading sessions. There are a lot of theories being floated like all this is our politician’s money only which is being channeled by way of PN route. BUT ALL SAID AND DONE, IT IS BEING LABELLED AS FII INVESTMENTNOW AND IT IS PROPELLING THE MARKET.
IT and PHARMA - old favourites - have taken a back seat and the main driving force is BANKING / ENERGY and PSUs. Even mid-caps have started performing to some extent giving the feel of a broad based rally.
Election results are still 7 weeks away and generally it is not possible to sustain such a high momentum for such long durations – unless we keep on getting 5,000 crores FII flows per week for next 7 weeks. In that case, we may scale up to even 7000 NIFTY level. At that point margin for error will be zero and any untoward election verdict will send us down to 5,600- 5,800 NIFTY level in a couple of days.
EVEN A POSITIVE VERDICT MAY GIVE 150 - 200 POINT UPMOVE ON THE RESULT DAY BUT RESULTANT PROFIT BOOKING WILL FIND LOWER EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL FOR NIFTY AROUND 6,600 / 6800 IN 4 / 5 TRADING SESSIONS.
I AM MOVING TO CASH – SLOWLY - ALLOCATION NOW 30 % TO EQUITIES FROM 35 TO 38 % 4 WEEKS AGO - since I am convinced that we will get opportunity to deploy that at much lower stock prices ( about 10/12 % lower) sometime during next 6/7 weeks.
I will recommend a NIFTY / BANK NIFTY strategy after 2 weeks. Currently risk reward is in favour of going short but upward momentum may not allow you to make money.
It is not necessary that you must trade everyday or every week and sometimes it is prudent to stand aside and watch the fun and games.
As I always say, we have to play percentages to make money. Bold bravado does not help. WHAT DO YOU SAY ? ? ?
APRIL 2014 TRADING LEVELS will be out by 2nd April . You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades. I have also released CY 2014 trading levels on my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/.
Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce and needs to be respected.
My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.
Keep logged on to yahoo messenger for guidance related to investment levels on specific stocks. I will be putting some of those recommendations on my website also under messages tab as well.
I am available on yahoo messenger on most of the trading days and you can add me on your yahoo messenger. My yahoo id is madhavranade1
Keep watching my website www.sumamura.com closely for further inputs. You need to register and login to see modules section where all the levels for different timeframes are shown.
You can view individual modules for as little as 3,000 rupees per year. A package for all 8 modules for just 30,000 rupees for the full year.
Please call me on 9371002943 for more details.
Indices weekly levels
|
TER POSN TRADING |
weekly |
DATE |
31st march / 4th april 2014 |
|
|
stocks / indices |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
bse sensex |
short |
22130 |
22025/21920/815/710 |
22235 |
|
long |
22340 |
22445/550/655/760 |
22235 |
|
|
CNX IT |
short |
9315 |
9215/115/9015/8915/815 |
9415 |
|
long |
9415 |
9515/615 |
9315 |
|
|
CNX AUTO |
short |
5690 |
x |
5750 |
|
long |
5750 |
x |
5690 |
|
|
CNX ENERGY |
short |
8315 |
x |
8375 |
|
long |
8375 |
x |
8315 |
|
|
CNX FMCG |
short |
18040 |
x |
18210 |
|
long |
18210 |
x |
18040 |
|
|
CNX INFRA |
short |
2620 |
x |
2642.5 |
|
long |
2642.5 |
x |
2620 |
|
|
CNX METAL |
short |
2410 |
x |
2430 |
|
long |
2430 |
x |
2410 |
|
|
CNX MIDCAP |
short |
8445 |
x |
8535 |
|
long |
8535 |
x |
8445 |
|
|
CNX PHARMA |
short |
7650 |
x |
7695 |
|
long |
7695 |
x |
7650 |
|
|
CNX PSU BANKS |
short |
2722.5 |
x |
2745 |
|
long |
2745 |
x |
2722.5 |
|
|
CNX REALTY |
short |
182 |
x |
184 |
|
long |
184 |
x |
182 |
WORLD INDICES
|
weekly |
|
DATE |
31st march / 4th april 2014 |
|
|
world indices |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
S & P |
short |
1846 |
1830/14/1798/82 |
1862 |
|
long |
1862 |
1878/94/1910 |
1846 |
|
|
nasdaq comp |
short |
4260 |
4205/150/095/040 |
4315 |
|
long |
4315 |
4370/425/480 |
4260 |
|
|
dow jones |
short |
16225 |
16100/15975/850/725/600 |
16350 |
|
long |
16350 |
16475/600/725/850 |
16225 |
|
|
FTSE |
short |
6570 |
6515/460/405 |
6625 |
|
long |
6625 |
6680/735/790 |
6570 |
|
|
nikkei |
short |
14600 |
14465/330/195/060 |
14735 |
|
long |
14735 |
14870/15005/140 |
14600 |
|
|
australian ord |
short |
5340 |
5300/260/220 |
5380 |
|
long |
5380 |
5420/460/500 |
5340 |
|
|
hangseng |
short |
21845 |
21710/575/440/305 |
22115 |
|
long |
22115 |
22250/385/520/655 |
21845 |
|
|
shanghai |
short |
2019 |
1996/74/51 |
2041 |
|
long |
2041 |
2064/85/108/130 |
2019 |
COMMODITIES
|
weekly |
|
DATE |
31st march / 4th april 2014 |
|
|
|
commodity |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
|
gold |
short |
1294 |
1282/70/58/46 |
1306 |
US$ / T ounce |
|
long |
1306 |
1318/30/42 |
1294 |
||
|
silver |
short |
19.73 |
19.44/19.15/18.86/18.57 |
20.01 |
US$ / T ounce |
|
long |
20.01 |
20.29/20.57/20.86/21.15/21.44 |
19.73 |
||
|
crude |
short |
101.25 |
100.25/99.25 |
102.25 |
US$ / barrel |
|
long |
102.25 |
103.25/04.25/05.25 |
101.25 |
||
|
nat gas |
short |
4.51 |
4.435/4.36/4.285/4.21 |
4.585 |
US$ / 10K MMBTU |
|
long |
4.585 |
4.66/4.735/4.81 |
4.51 |
||
|
copper |
short |
3.015 |
2.975/2.935/2.895/2.855 |
3.055 |
US$ / pound |
|
long |
3.055 |
3.095/3.135/3.175 |
3.015 |
||
|
sugar |
short |
469 |
461.5/54/46.5/39 |
476.5 |
US$ / tonne |
|
long |
476.5 |
484/91.5/99 |
469 |
|
weekly |
|
DATE |
31st march / 4th april 2014 |
|
|
|
commodity |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
|
gold |
short |
1294 |
1282/70/58/46 |
1306 |
US$ / T ounce |
|
long |
1306 |
1318/30/42 |
1294 |
||
|
silver |
short |
19.73 |
19.44/19.15/18.86/18.57 |
20.01 |
US$ / T ounce |
|
long |
20.01 |
20.29/20.57/20.86/21.15/21.44 |
19.73 |
||
|
crude |
short |
101.25 |
100.25/99.25 |
102.25 |
US$ / barrel |
|
long |
102.25 |
103.25/04.25/05.25 |
101.25 |
||
|
nat gas |
short |
4.51 |
4.435/4.36/4.285/4.21 |
4.585 |
US$ / 10K MMBTU |
|
long |
4.585 |
4.66/4.735/4.81 |
4.51 |
||
|
copper |
short |
3.015 |
2.975/2.935/2.895/2.855 |
3.055 |
US$ / pound |
|
long |
3.055 |
3.095/3.135/3.175 |
3.015 |
||
|
sugar |
short |
469 |
461.5/54/46.5/39 |
476.5 |
US$ / tonne |
|
long |
476.5 |
484/91.5/99 |
469 |
|
weekly |
|
DATE |
31st march / 4th april 2014 |
|
|
world indices |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
S & P |
short |
1846 |
1830/14/1798/82 |
1862 |
|
long |
1862 |
1878/94/1910 |
1846 |
|
|
nasdaq comp |
short |
4260 |
4205/150/095/040 |
4315 |
|
long |
4315 |
4370/425/480 |
4260 |
|
|
dow jones |
short |
16225 |
16100/15975/850/725/600 |
16350 |
|
long |
16350 |
16475/600/725/850 |
16225 |
|
|
FTSE |
short |
6570 |
6515/460/405 |
6625 |
|
long |
6625 |
6680/735/790 |
6570 |
|
|
nikkei |
short |
14600 |
14465/330/195/060 |
14735 |
|
long |
14735 |
14870/15005/140 |
14600 |
|
|
australian ord |
short |
5340 |
5300/260/220 |
5380 |
|
long |
5380 |
5420/460/500 |
5340 |
|
|
hangseng |
short |
21845 |
21710/575/440/305 |
22115 |
|
long |
22115 |
22250/385/520/655 |
21845 |
|
|
shanghai |
short |
2019 |
1996/74/51 |
2041 |
|
long |
2041 |
2064/85/108/130 |
2019 |
|
weekly |
|
DATE |
31st march / 4th april 2014 |
|
|
world indices |
go |
entry |
Target |
Stoploss |
|
S & P |
short |
1846 |
1830/14/1798/82 |
1862 |
|
long |
1862 |
1878/94/1910 |
1846 |
|
|
nasdaq comp |
short |
4260 |
4205/150/095/040 |
4315 |
|
long |
4315 |
4370/425/480 |
4260 |
|
|
dow jones |
short |
16225 |
16100/15975/850/725/600 |
16350 |
|
long |
16350 |
16475/600/725/850 |
16225 |
|
|
FTSE |
short |
6570 |
6515/460/405 |
6625 |
|
long |
6625 |
6680/735/790 |
6570 |
|
|
nikkei |
short |
14600 |
14465/330/195/060 |
14735 |
|
long |
14735 |
14870/15005/140 |
14600 |
|
|
australian ord |
short |
5340 |
5300/260/220 |
5380 |
|
long |
5380 |
5420/460/500 |
5340 |
|
|
hangseng |
short |
21845 |
21710/575/440/305 |
22115 |
|
long |
22115 |
22250/385/520/655 |
21845 |
|
|
shanghai |
short |
2019 |
1996/74/51 |
2041 |
|
long |
2041 |
2064/85/108/130 |
2019 |
NIFTY SPOT INTRA