May 2013

my weekly take ....

Trading levels  ---  6th / 10th  May    2013

This was a third truncated week on the trot. It was again a 4 day week. First three trading days were up days and the last one was a mild reversal from previous day’s high.

We are absolutely lucky that we have Dr. Subbarao as RBI governor – who has a very balanced head to think logically in any given situation. He also has capacity to withstand any kind of pressure that is put on him from the FM / Dy. Chief of planning commission / all types of industrial organizations etc etc.

He ensured that we had   a token  25 basis point REPO rate cut. Unfortunately the bank chiefs have decided not to pass on this cut to borrowers. RBI is the apex regulating body for all banks but all PSU bank heads report to FM  and he has indirect control over them.

So  - in reality – FM is fighting a proxy battle – with RBI governor – thru the Head of SBI. Please note number of times you saw SBI chief on TV in last 8/10 days.

US markets roared ahead last week when FED CHIEF BEN BERNANKE confirmed that he wl continue to buy bonds worth 85 billion US dollars every months – for next two three years.

Some of this money may percolate to emerging markets. Even 5 % will come to India in any particular month, our markets will show a huge jump. It may very well happen this month itself and we may be within knocking distance from a new all time high.

IN SUCH A SCENARIO … IT IS FUTILE TO LOOK AT TECHNICAL LEVELS. IT HAPPENED IN LAST QTR OF 2007 AND MAY WELL HAPPEN AGAIN NOW.

I have released monthly trading levels for MAY 2013 on my website – www.sumamura.com under messages tab and you can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades.
 

• weekly		DATE	6th / 10th may  2013
  commodity	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
  gold	short	1449	1433/17/01	1465	US$ / T ounce
  	long	1481	1497/1513/29/45	1465
  silver	short	24.01	23.75/23.49/23.23/22.97/22.71/22.45	24.27	US$ / T ounce
  	long	24.53	24.79/25.05/25.31/25.57	24.27
  crude	short	94.6	93.7/92.8/91.9/91	95.5	US$ / barrel
  	long	95.5	96.4/97.3/98.2/99.1/100	94.6
  nat gas	short	4.04	4/3.96/3.92/3.88/3.84/3.8	4.08	US$ / 10K MMBTU
  	long	4.08	4.12/4.16/4.2/4.24/4.28	4.04
  copper	short	3.25	3.205/3.16/3.115/3.07	3.295	US$ / pound
  	long	3.295	3.34/3.385/3.43/3.475/3.52	3.25
  sugar	short	497	493/89/85/81/77/73	501	US$ / tonne
  	long	501	505/09/13/17/21	497