April 2013
MY WEEKLY TAKE .....
Trading levels --- 1st / 5th April 2013
Last week was a truncated week with two trading holidays. The result was very subdued trading. However, there was a flourish on FAO expiry day - in last one hour - particularly because of two reasons – 1… quarter end window dressing by Indian as well as global Mutual Funds and 2…. Monday being a trading holiday in most developed markets due to EASTER, the long positions will not be under any undue pressure till Tuesday in our market.
SP has backed off a bit and there seems to be relative calm on political front. There is a possibility that we may have another 50 to 70 NIFTY points rally on Monday particularly in large cap stocks.
I have just released monthly trading levels for APRIL 2013 on my website – www.sumamura.com under messages tab and you can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades.
The true picture of market condition is not reflected in either the NIFTY or even the MIDCAP index. Many popular counters got simply decimated and these stocks are trading at the levels lower than when nifty was at 4500 in December 2011. Many stocks have even gone lower than October 2008 levels. SUCH
IS THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE.
I still maintain that our market may continue to underperform for some more time and I expect a strong support … a very strong one – to emerge around 5460/5480 levels. These levels may come in play in next 8 to 10 trading sessions with intervening upticks couple of times. THIS IS ASSUMING WORLD MARKETS WILL BE AT THE MOST IN SIDEWAYS PATTERN.
S&P has hit a new all time high last week but the upward momentum is lacking strength. The litmus test will come in coming two weeks – that is what I feel.
If the resultant downslide in US markets starts within next 6 to 8 trading sessions when Indian markets are in the medium term downtrend, we can even have levels of 5200/5250 on nifty.
My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.