April 2013
MY WEEKLY TAKE ......
Trading levels --- 8th / 12th April 2013
As expected, the flourish that we saw on FAO expiry Thursday and the follow-up on Monday / Tuesday was short-lived and two big down days on Wednesday / Thursday erased all the gains and even more. Friday was also showing weakness but some amount of profit booking on short positions ensured that the market did not have a deep cut.
For last two weeks I have been writing that slide to 5460 / 5480 is imminent but that is a SOLID support zone …… I recommend to make fresh longs in major nifty components as well as NIFTY closer to 5480 with a stop loss of 5400 nifty closing level.
I had written earlier that upside momentum in US markets is waning and last week that has become more evident. This has resulted in some minor outflows on FII side which is the worst thing to happen to our markets since the whole rise from jan 2012 is only LIQUIDITY DRIVEN in-spite of deteriorating macros.
I have released monthly trading levels for APRIL 2013 on my website – www.sumamura.com under messages tab and you can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades.
The true picture of market condition is not reflected in either the NIFTY or even the MIDCAP index. Many popular counters got simply decimated and these stocks are trading at the levels lower than when nifty was at 4500 in December 2011. Many stocks have even gone lower than October 2008 levels. SUCH
IS THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE.
S&P has hit a new all time high last week but the upward momentum is lacking strength. The litmus test will come in coming week – that is what I feel.
If the resultant downslide in US markets starts within next 6 to 8 trading sessions when Indian markets are in the medium term downtrend, we can even have levels of 5200/5250 on nifty.
| POSN TRADING | weekly | DATE | 8th / 12th april 2013 | |
| stocks / indices | go | entry | Target | Stoploss |
| ALWAYS PREFER TRADES IN THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY | ||||
| cnx nifty | short | 5570 | 5528/486/444 | 5612 |
| long | 5612 | 5654/96/738/780 | 5570 | |
| bse sensex | short | 18500 | 18360/220/080/17940 | 18640 |
| long | 18640 | 18780/920/19060 | 18500 | |
| BANK NIFTY | Short | 11105 | 11025/10945/865/785 | 11185 |
| Long | 11185 | 11265/345/425/505 | 11105 | |
| CNX IT | Short | 7035 | 6955/875/795/715 | 7115 |
| Long | 7115 | 7195/275/355 | 7035 | |
| ACC | Short | 1125 | 1114/03/1092/81/70 | 1136 |
| Long | 1147 | 1158/69/80 | 1136 | |
| axis bank | Short | 1222 | 1214/06/1198/90 | 1230 |
| Long | 1238 | 1246/54/62/70/78 | 1230 | |
| BHEL | Short | 179 | 177/75/73/71/69 | 181 |
| Long | 181 | 183/85/87/89/91 | 179 | |
| BHARTI | Short | 270.5 | 268/65.5/63/60.5/58 | 273 |
| Long | 275.5 | 278/80.5/83/85.5/88 | 273 | |
| CIPLA | Short | 383 | 380/77/74/71/68 | 386 |
| Long | 386 | 389/92/95/98/401/04 | 383 | |
| DABUR | Short | 141 | 139.25/37.5/35.75/34 | 142.75 |
| Long | 142.75 | 144.5/46.25/48 | 141 | |
| HDFC | Short | 768 | 758/48/38/28 | 778 |
| Long | 788 | 798/808/18/28 | 778 | |
| hdfc bank | Short | 617.5 | 611/04.5/598/91.5/85 | 624 |
| Long | 624 | 630.5/37/43.5/50 | 617.5 | |
| HUL | Short | 465 | 460/55/50/45 | 470 |
| Long | 470 | 475/80/85/90 | 465 | |
| INFOSYS | Short | 2855 | 2825/2795/65/35/05 | 2885 |
| long | 2885 | 2915/45/75 | 2855 | |
| ICICI BANK | Short | 1000 | 986/72/58/44 | 1014 |
| Long | 1014 | 1028/42/56 | 1000 | |
| IDFC | Short | 141.25 | 139.5/37.75/36/34.25/32.5 | 143 |
| Long | 143 | 144.75/46.5/48.25/50 | 141.25 | |
| IDEA | Short | 100.5 | 99.25/98/96.75/95.5/94.25/93 | 101.75 |
| Long | 101.75 | 103/04.25/05.5/06.75/08 | 100.5 | |
| ITC | Short | 290.5 | 287.5/84.5/81.5/78.5 | 293.5 |
| Long | 296.5 | 299.5/302.5/05.5 | 293.5 | |
| LT | Short | 1353 | 1340/27/14/01/1288/75 | 1366 |
| Long | 1366 | 1379/92/1405/18 | 1353 | |
| M&M | Short | 838 | 830/21/13/04 | 847 |
| Long | 847 | 855/64/72 | 838 | |
| MARUTI | Short | 1392 | 1380/69/57/46 | 1403 |
| Long | 1415 | 1427/38/50 | 1403 | |
| REC | Short | 211 | 209/07/05/03 | 213 |
| Long | 213 | 215/17/19/21 | 211 | |
| RELIANCE | Short | 779 | 770/61/52 | 788 |
| long | 788 | 797/806/15 | 779 | |
| SBI | Short | 2053 | 2035/17/1999/81 | 2071 |
| Long | 2071 | 2089/2107/25/43 | 2053 | |
| TATAMOTORS | Short | 256 | 254/52/50/48/46/44 | 258 |
| Long | 260 | 262/64/66/68/70 | 258 | |
| TATASTEEL | Short | 310 | 306/02/298/94 | 314 |
| Long | 314 | 318/22/26/30 | 310 | |
| TCS | Short | 1494 | 1479/64/49/34/19/04 | 1509 |
| Long | 1524 | 1539/54/69/84 | 1509 | |
| CNX AUTO | short | 4141 | x | 4178 |
| long | 4178 | x | 4141 | |
| CNX ENERGY | short | 7585 | x | 7670 |
| long | 7670 | x | 7585 | |
| CNX FMCG | short | 14800 | x | 14930 |
| long | 14930 | x | 14800 | |
| CNX INFRA | short | 2169 | x | 2200 |
| long | 2200 | x | 2169 | |
| CNX METAL | short | 2184 | x | 2208 |
| long | 2208 | x | 2184 | |
| CNX MIDCAP | short | 7420 | x | 7490 |
| long | 7490 | x | 7420 | |
| CNX PHARMA | short | 6110 | x | 6170 |
| long | 6170 | x | 6110 | |
| CNX PSU BANKS | short | 3045 | x | 3085 |
| long | 3085 | x | 3045 | |
| CNX REALTY | short | 223 | x | 225 |
| long | 225 | x | 223 | |
watch following BSE A group stocks .......
short / medium / long term bearish –
ambuja cements / exide ind
short / medium term bearish –
USL / jet / ITC / HDFC / bharti / axis
medium / long term bearish –
nestle / hero moto / grasim
medium / long term bullish –
wipro / sun pharma / dabur
short / medium term bullish –
IGL / HUL
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