April 2013

ignore HUL level given earlier today as HUL has given a buyback at 600 .....

HUL may hit high of 590/95 at opening and then the stock will slide to 560/570 ........

NIFTY will also get pulled up towards resistance of 5970 ......

MY WEEKLY TAKE .....

Trading levels  ---  29th  April / 3rd May    2013

Last two weeks were truncated with just 4 trading sessions each. Out of 8 trading sessions 6 have been up days and two days have been small down days. Result is that the market has moved up whopping 350 points – averaging 45 points a day.

This is a big up-move and indicates extreme bullishness in the market.  All this is based on single likely event …. RBI rate cut … marketmen have factored in 50 basis point rate cut alongwith matching 50 basis point CRR cut.

This means there is very little room for further positive surprise but a whole lot of room for disappointment. Thus the risk / reward is now very favourable for bears. This is indicated by premiums for puts which are much higher than call premiums.

Bank nifty has been the star performer with more than 13 % up-move in last ten trading sessions. CNX IT has been a sour point as it has gone down by exactly similar percentage. If CNX IT was to just hold its level … NIFTY would have been above 6100 by now, raising visions of a new all time high.

Technically, I see a level of 5970 as major resistance which may be tested if RBI fulfills market wishes ….. even if RBI disappoints partially, we will be testing 5750 levels on the day of RBI policy announcement.

US market is showing lots of volatility on daily as well as weekly basis with alternate bouts of selling and buying. It seems that the bulls may be sapped of their energy and resources by the time the volatility subsides and the US markets may grind lower toward 1520 S&P levels.

Gold made a fairly strong comeback last week and I am glad to state that it just hit 1483 weekly high level indicated by me. Watch gold and silver weekly levels for this week as well.

I have released monthly trading levels for APRIL 2013 on my website – www.sumamura.com under messages tab and you can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades.