March 2013

MY WEEKLY TAKE .....

Trading levels --- 18th / 22nd March 2013

Last week was a volatile weak. We had 4 down days and on up day. Up day had huge intraday reversal indicating trend reversal but that was negated due to lack of follow-up on subsequent day.

Overall, we ended the week 1.5 % lower with neither the bulls nor the bears having clear upper hand.

American markets continued to inch upwards with some positive news-flow from housing / retail sales and employment data. Our markets were not much enthused by this further up move in DOW and S&P and continued to chart their course with eye on RBI meeting on this Tuesday.

25 basis points REPO rate cut is already factored in and market will move about 50 nifty points when it actually happens. The kicker will come if there is 50 basis point rate cut or NO rate cut. In that case market will make about 200 points move in either direction.

I am still watching world markets rather cautiously till I have a conclusive evidence of a clear break-out. It may take a week or two for that.

Last week I had mentioned Castrol and Indraprastha. CASTROL continued its up move but Indraprastha dashed to 290 on Monday only to give up all those gains in the next four days.

This week you may continue with Castrol and also try your hand at longs with Madras Cement.

MY WEEKLY TAKE .....


Trading levels --- 11th / 15th March 2013

After 5 continuous down weeks, a bounce-back was on the cards. It kicked in from 4th march afternoon. The sharp pull back is nearly 300 points. Follow-up next week is crucial as this is a technical pull back since nothing has changed fundamentally.

Some European critics have in-fact welcomed the setback in Italian elections as this has given the first and real indication of the mass response to austerity measures which the European rich nations have been pushing thru the gullets of poorer southern nations.

American stock markets have overlooked the effects of sequester / the resultant tax cuts and they have given a big ‘thumbs-up’ to somewhat better economic news flow. DOW has made a new all time high and S&P is not far away.

This meant the topping-out patterns visible on most world markets two weeks ago have been overshadowed for the time being and it looks like that this could be the new start of a fresh up-move.

I AM NOT CONVINCED AND THIS COULD BE A FALSE BREAK-OUT. THE EXPECTED DOWNTREND WILL GET POSTPONED BY A FEW WEEKS. That’s all.

We are again at the mercy of FIIs and our further course will be charted by their Moneyflow.

CASTROL and INDRAPRASTHA GAS are two stocks which are currently in short and medium term UP-TREND. It may be worthwhile to make a new long position in either of the two.