February 2013
MY WEEKLY TAKE ....
Trading levels --- 11th / 15th February 2013
We have had 6 down days out of 7 trading days including the FAO expiry day on 31st January …. And the plus day was paltry 3 points positive close. In al,l we have lost 152 points from Wednesdays ( 30th Jan ) close of 6055.
This has happened in-spite of FIIs having brought in nearly 1.5 billion dollars in these 7 days. That tells a lot about market internals and heavy selling by DIIs. I HAVE BEEN HARPING ABOUT THIS FOR LAST SEVERAL WEEKS WHEN EVERYBODY WAS GOING GA-GA ABOUT NIFTY AND PREDICTING NEW HIGH AND WHAT NOT.
All heavyweight NIFTY stocks, except ITC and IT stock,s have corrected by more than 10 % in last 5/6 weeks and result is a 180/200 point cut on NIFTY in 4 weeks.
Vicious sector rotation was witnessed and except IT all other sectors have given-up significant gains. ENERGY sector which was considered the backbone of future rally – after the partial de-regulation of diesel prices – has suffered the most in last 2 weeks.
Next week could be a neutral week with alternate bouts of buying and selling as bulls will desperately try to defend 5900 NIFTY level. Our obliging FM will do everything to help them by making a few announcements here and there.
I will pick out RELIANCE and CIPLA for some bounce next week as both of them are at significant support after vicious correction. If these supports fail, we may see another minimum 5 % cut on both the stocks .
The contours of the budget are now becoming a bit visible and looks like that we are in for some harsh higher tax provisions both in direct and indirect taxes. I don’t think this feeling is not good for markets to move much higher before the budget. At most we will test 6100 before budget. That is my feeling.
ALL THIS IS PREDICATED ON STRONG FII FLOWS FOR NEXT FOUR WEEKS .